Brazil Late Season Crops Benefit From Recent Rain
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, May 3 (World Weather Inc.) – Welcome rain moved through Brazil last week lifting soil moisture in several very important late-season crop areas including western and southern Sao Paulo, Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and portions of Mato Grosso. Rain elsewhere tended to be a little too light and erratic leaving some production areas too dry. The driest areas include Goias, Minas Gerais and northeastern portions 
of Sao Paulo. Bahia remained one of the driest states in the nation, but its seasonal rains have ceased and no opportunity for relief is expected again until October. Out of the second season corn production areas, Goias has the biggest problem with dryness and will suffer the largest losses from this season’s dryness issue. Additional rain will fall this week and next week from Mato Grosso do Sul to Parana and parts of Sao Paulo to maintain better crop development potentials in corn, sugarcane, citrus and rice production areas while Goias stays too dry and Mato Grosso slowly driest out.
Rainfall during the past week was greatest from southern and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana through western Sao Paulo and immediate neighboring areas in Minas Gerais and Goias. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 1.00 to 3.15 inches. Much of Minas Gerais outside the north and Rio de Janeiro reported 0.20 to 1.00 inch of rain with several areas receiving up to 2.00 inches of rain. Southern Brazil reported 0.60 to 1.45 inches of rain. Northern Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and the remaining portions of Goias 
only received up to 0.67 inch of rain while Bahia was virtually dry.
The topsoil has adequate to excessive moisture from Rio Grande do Sul through western Sao Paulo and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Fieldwork was likely sluggish in recent days due to the abundant rainfall. Eastern Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais, and center west Brazil have a minor shortage of topsoil moisture while the remaining production areas from Goias through northern Minas Gerais and Bahia are critically dry. Northeastern Brazil continues to suffer from a multi-year drought and needs a significant amount of rain to fix the moisture deficits.
Main season corn, soybeans, rice, and other crop harvesting will continue in the next few weeks across Brazil. However, soybean harvesting is 95% complete and much of the main season corn should be harvested now, as well.
Sugarcane harvesting is just beginning and recent dry conditions in Minas Gerais and that which occurred briefly in Sao Paulo, stressed some of the crop, but at this time of year that stress often translates into higher sucrose levels. Citrus harvesting is just beginning as well, but the recent rain in Sao Paulo 
(which is most important for citrus and sugarcane production) has brought some relief that will improve crop conditions Dry weather would be welcome to promote the best environment for aggressive harvesting and general fieldwork. Yields are expected to be favorable in most areas this year, but that will not be the case in Goias.
Goias has suffered from dryness most significantly relative to that of many other Safrinha corn producing states. Dryness in Goias is most serious and yields have fallen greatest there. Goias produces 8% of the total second season corn crop and a total loss in production is certainly not likely, but there may be a few regions that experience very low yields because of ongoing dryness.
The most important Safrinha corn production region is Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana where 82% of the crop is often produced. Weather conditions have been favorable in this corridor during much of the growing season, although there were a few weeks of moisture stress that resulted from minimal rain and warm temperatures. Some yield potential was likely lost during that period of time, but recent rain has offered some relief and that will likely curb some of the loss potential and “may” help restore “some” of the yield through better corn filling conditions.
World Weather, Inc. expects total production of the Safrinha corn crop to be down 5-7% because of the recent dryness. That includes the Bahia and Minas Gerais crops which have also experienced significant stress – like that of Goias.
The second season corn crop in center-south and center-west Brazil still has a few weeks before reaching maturation. Early harvesting in Mato Grosso begins in late May. Timely rain will be needed later this month to keep the moisture profile rated favorably in the primary production areas from Mato Grosso to Parana. The greatest need for rain will be in Goias, Mato Grosso and the minor production areas in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais where relief from dryness this past week was not very substantial.
Brazil’s main agricultural areas will trend dry through Friday afternoon. The wettest areas in southern and center-south Brazil left over from last week’s rain will have an opportunity to firm up while the weather is drier biased this week and that will result in a better environment for any fieldwork that is under way. Fieldwork in other locations will continue to advance swiftly. The ground may firm up a little too much in southeastern portions of Mato Grosso and northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul where a little crop stress may evolve. In the meantime, no meaningful rain is expected in Goias, Minas Gerais or Bahia.
Scattered shower activity will evolve in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina, and neighboring areas Friday evening before spreading across center-south Brazil over the weekend and beginning of next week. Rainfall will be enough to bolster soil moisture from much of Mato Grosso do Sul to Parana where some flooding might evolve in a few low-lying areas. Moisture totals for Santa Catarina, Parana, southern and western Sao Paulo, and much of Mato Grosso do Sul outside the north will range from 0.75 to 2.50 inches with local amounts of 4.00 inches or more. The remaining portions of Brazil will remain in a mostly dry bias these days. Most corn, sugarcane, citrus, late season rice and other crops produced in interior southern Brazil will be plenty moist through May if the all of the rain falls as advertised. Mato Grosso corn and cotton will likely develop favorably, but some need for timely rain will evolve over time, especially for cotton where subsoil moisture is a little low.
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