Depression 9 Becomes Tropical Storm Hermine; Path shifts NW
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, August 31 (World Weather Inc.) – Tropical Depression Nine intensified to Tropical Storm Hermine this afternoon and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch remain in effect for northwestern Florida. The storm is expected to reach land in northwestern Florida near Apalachicola Thursday evening with further intensification expected prior to landfall.
At 1600 CDT today, the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near 25.5 north, 87.4 west moving north northeasterly at 7 mph while producing a maximum sustained wind speed of 45 mph. Tropical Storm force wind was occurring out 125 miles from the storm center – mostly to the east and southeast.
Both the mid-day GFS and European model solutions for the storm have shifted the predicted path of Hermine to the northwest of the previous track and the National Hurricane Center has done the same. Landfall is now expected near Apalachicola around 2000 EDT Thursday.
Heavy rain is still expected in northern Florida beginning in some areas tonight and continuing through Friday. The storm will likely move over the coast near Apalachicola Thursday evening and the strongest wind speeds will likely be near hurricane intensity. The quicker the storm moves over land the lighter the potential damage will be to the region. Most of northern Florida and southern Georgia will get rain from the storm with totals varying from 4.00 to 10.00 inches along the north shore of Apalachee Bay with local totals of 10.00 to 20.00 inches possible. This same region will also experience the greatest storm surge and coastal flooding along with wind speeds that will vary from 40 to 70 mph just shortly before landfall. Rainfall in southern Georgia and northernmost counties in Florida will range from 2.00 to 5.00 inches with a few totals over 6.00 inches.
The storm is expected to start transitioning into a mid-latitude storm system Saturday and Sunday as the system moves northeast through some of the Atlantic coastal states. The intensity of the storm may be sustained even though its center is over land most of the day Friday and Saturday because of cool air flowing into the back of the storm from the Midwest. The storm’s greatest rain is predicted to move from northwestern Florida Friday to southeastern Virginia Saturday afternoon. In the wake of the storm’s movement, rainfall of 2.00 to 6.00 inches will be common in cotton, peanut, corn and soybean production areas. Flooding will result and some damage to crops will be possible, especially in areas where the sustained wind speed is greater than 40 mph. Some corn lodging is possible, but most of the wind will have to be notably stronger than that to cause widespread damage. Soybeans and peanuts are not mature enough to be seriously harmed in most cases and cotton will also withstand the adverse conditions relatively well since the crop is not in the open boll stage of development.
No damage to Florida’s main citrus or sugarcane production area is expected, but the storm will produce some damage to personal property and agriculture across northern Florida. The region produces a number of row crops like cotton, soybeans and peanuts along with many fruits and vegetables that re produced low to the ground where flooding might cause damage.
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