World Rice Weather: Mercosur Receives Excessive Rain
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, Marcy 10 (World Weather, Inc.) – Rice areas in Mercosur received heavy rainfall overnight and portions of the region will get more rain during the weekend resulting in delays to harvest progress and raising the potential for grain quality declines. Rain will continue routinely from Africa to Indonesia and Malaysia with some increase in precipitation expected soon in mainland areas of Southeast Asia. In contrast, rice areas from Yunnan through Guangdong, China to Taiwan are experiencing less than usual rain and need greater moisture to support the best early season rice development potential.
ENSO UPDATE
Despite warming ocean surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, ENSO conditions are neutral and not likely to change for a while. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) CFSv2 ENSO model has been suggesting El Nino is evolving and the model has suggested the phenomenon would begin as early as April. World Weather, Inc. and many other forecasting entities have suggested the forecast is much too aggressive and El Nino may evolve later this year, but the odds are not very good for the phenomenon to evolve right now.
The neutral ENSO conditions may lend support to a favorable rice production year for many areas around the world. However, there has been a tendency in recent years for neutral ENSO conditions to produce less than usual rainfall in India. India’s tendency for lighter rains may only be a short term perturbation in weather patterns, but until it becomes obvious that rainfall will be abundant a little caution may be advised especially in years like this in which El Nino like conditions may evolve over time. Most tropical and subtropical rice production areas around the world are expected to experience a mostly favorable environment for rice production in 2017.
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) UPDATE
A Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event that was over the Indian Ocean last week was shifting into the Southeast Asian countries this week, but it was also diminishing. The influence from this MJO event is quickly fading and most rice production areas will continue to receive timely rainfall experience favorable development conditions until a new MJO event develops.
VIETNAM/THAILAND/LAOS/CAMBODIA
It has been at least three years since seasonal rains have increased in mainland Southeast Asia normally. This year will be the first. A boost in rainfall is already being advertised for the coming week with greater rainfall after March 17. The precipitation will be erratic and often light initially, but the development of rain is expected to occur much more normally like the non-El Nino years that preceded the 2015 El Nino event. Rain is expected to be sufficiently great to bolster soil moisture, run off and water supply during the second half of this month and especially in April. The moisture will translate into a highly favorable environment for early season rice planting and development.
PHILIPPINES
Rainfall over the past week was greater than usual in the eastern two thirds of Mindanao and a few locations in east-central Luzon Island. Rainfall in other eastern rice producing areas in the Philippines reported light to moderate rainfall. Sufficient rain has occurred recently to leave the topsoil saturated with moisture from eastern Luzon southward through much of Samar Island to central and eastern Mindanao. The moisture abundance is great for developing rice. The driest areas in the nation are in western areas from western Luzon to Palawan and in a few western Mindanao locations. Dryness in the west is not unusual for this time of year.
Weather in the coming week is expected to increase across the archipelago. Most areas will receive greater than usual rainfall and rice conditions will be favorably rated over a larger part of the nation. Second season crops are reproducing, filling and maturing with some harvesting under way. The moisture will not be good for harvest progress, but it will help assure the best possible yields.
The Visayan Islands reported below average rainfall during February, but enough rain occurred to maintain favorable rice development. Outside of the Visayan Islands last month, most of the nation reported above average rainfall in both January and February.
INDONESIA/MALAYSIA
Rain was abundant across Indonesia and Malaysia once again during the past week. The pattern of frequent rain has been consistent for a while. The entire month of February was wetter biased with abundant to excessive rain occurring across the archipelago. Rice development has likely advanced quite favorably this season with virtually no dryness problem areas. The forecast of March has been just as moist as that of February, although the limited occurrence of MJO will lead to some pockets of net drying. A little drying would be welcome since the ground is saturated in nearly all rice production areas.
Enough rain will fall over the balance of this month to induce the best possible rice development conditions. Some of the surplus moisture that has occurred recently should abate with less frequent and less significant rain.
TAIWAN
Rainfall in Taiwan was lighter than usual during February, but rain has increased in this first ten days of March. The change is extremely important since the main season rice planting takes place from January through March. Planting has already advanced across the nation, but crop development will be better with more frequent and more significant rain.
Rainfall is expected to continue lighter than usual which may threaten rice development in rain fed production areas. Water supply should still be favorable for irrigated crops after last summer’s abundant precipitation pattern. However, rain is needed. Most of the moisture that occurs in the next two weeks will be less than usual. Temperatures will be close to normal as they were most of the past month and that may help to conserve soil moisture through a normal drying rate.
Improved rainfall will be needed later this month and in April to assure the best production potentials.
CHINA
Early rice planting is under way. Soil conditions are mostly good for that process except in a few Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan locations where rainfall has been below average and soil conditions a little drier than usual. The situation is not critical, but there is need for rain to improve planting and early season crop development.
Most of the early rice crop is planted from the Yangtze River Basin southward to the coastal provinces. Rainfall over the past week was minimal in Yunnan and limited from Guizhou through Guangxi to western and southern Guangdong. Rain did fall in a timely manner last month and that has left soil moisture rated marginally adequate to slightly short. The coming two weeks will continue lighter than usual rainfall and that may prolong some concern over early rice in the far south.
Rain will fall much more abundantly in the remainder of early rice production areas. Up to 4.00 inches of rain is expected in the coming week from the Yangtze River southward to Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian and Zhejiang. The favorable rainfall environment may slow planting for a little while, but the long term outlook for planting and production is high with the only area of concern from Yunnan to Guangdong. Temperatures will be seasonable.
JAPAN
February rainfall was greatest along the north coast of Japan. All other areas reported less than usual moisture. The situation has continued in early March. However, soil moisture is still rated favorably and the outlook is for more drying in the coming week to ten days as rainfall continues lighter than usual. Temperatures will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias and that will help conserve soil moisture until seasonal rains return later this spring.
KOREAN PENINSULA
Much of the Korean Peninsula reported lighter than usual precipitation in February, but precipitation so far in March has been a little more favorable. There is still need for greater rainfall in North and South Korea before the planting season arrives, but that is several weeks away. There is plenty of time for greater precipitation, although the coming two weeks will likely perpetuate a below average bias.
INDIA
Rainfall in India during February was quite limited. There is need for a significant boost in precipitation, but only for late maturing winter rice. Some rain fell during the past week in far southern India and in random locations along the upper east coast and in the far Eastern States. Resulting rainfall was restricted and yet quite varied. One location along the central Tamil Nadu coast reported over 7.00 inches of rain while inland areas of far southern India reported 0.20 to 1.77 inches. Rain elsewhere was rarely enough to induce a boost in precipitation.
Much of the winter rice crop is irrigated and it should have had sufficient moisture to perform normally. Rain fed crops needed greater rainfall to induce the best yields and the moisture was simply lacking and that might have left yields a little lower.
Weather in this coming week is expected to be a little greater and that might favor some of the late season crops. Early maturing crops are already being harvested, although the bulk of fieldwork will occur in April and May.
In the meantime, World Weather, Inc. is expecting a favorable rainfall season this summer and that should translate into good production potentials in the majority of areas. There will be some pockets of dryness, but the impact on production is unlikely to be very great.
PAKISTAN
Winter precipitation in the northern mountains this year has been abundant and that will translate into favorable water supply for the 2017 rice crop that will be planted in a few weeks.
BANGLADESH
Weather conditions over the past few weeks were well mixed with weather to support good rice development and yields. Most of the winter crop is irrigated and water supply was more than sufficient to carry out crop needs. Rain will fall in the next couple of weeks and that may slow farming activity while supporting the new crop. Moisture totals during each of the next two weeks will be greater than usual, but not great enough to seriously threaten the quality of any crops.
EAST-CENTRAL AFRICA
Rainfall during the past 30 days ending March 8 was near to above average from Tanzania into Uganda and a few locations in Ethiopia. The wetter biased conditions should have translated into favorable rice yields and quality. Kenya rainfall was lighter than usual and some of that impacted rice production areas, as well. Kenya is the least rice producing nation in east-central Africa and the impact of dryness on the region should not be very great. With that said, a boost in rainfall is needed, but not likely for a while.
Rainfall during the next two weeks will be greatest in Tanzania and Ethiopia while that elsewhere will be more erratic and often too light to counter evaporation.
WEST-CENTRAL AFRICA
Seasonal rainfall has just begun. Rice planting is under way in a few areas, but most of it will occur after a more prolonged period of rain evolves. All indicators suggest that rainfall will be frequent and will move into west-central Africa swiftly without much delay this year.
CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO
Recent rainfall has been erratic and light limiting the amount of rice that has benefited from the precipitation. Most of the winter crop is irrigated and water supply is suspected for being supporting of that cause.
An unusually wet four days of weather is expected through the weekend and into early next week. The situation will support a boost in winter rice production.
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
Rice development continues to advance favorably. Timely rain has occurred in recent weeks, but there is need for greater rain to assure the best possible production potentials.
MERCOSUR
Rice production areas from Entre Rios and Corrientes, Argentina through Uruguay and into Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil over the past week was quite varied. Heavy rain occurred from southern Paraguay into western and northern Rio Grande do Sul while light and erratic rain occurred in Entre Rios, Uruguay and southern portions of Rio Grande do Sul. The environment offered some net drying in parts of the region and that followed above average rainfall in February and the ground is still quite wet from that ordeal.
Rice filling and maturing is occurring throughout Mercosur. There is need for drier weather to support better maturation conditions and to minimize harvest delays. However, the coming week will generate heavy rain some of which was occurring at the 
time of this writing.
Heavy rain will continue to occur periodically through Sunday with flooding expected in parts of northern Entre Rios, Uruguay and southern and western Rio Grande do Sul. Some of these areas will receive 2.50 to more than 7.00 inches of rain resulting in the potential for grain quality declines. Some of the mature rice may get knocked to the ground by heavy rainfall rendering the crop unharvestable. Drier weather is expected next week and it will be during that time that a first assessment of damage will be completed.
As of a week ago, Rio Grande do Sul was reporting 4.5% of the state’s harvest was complete. Only a few regions were reporting aggressive harvesting. Fieldwork in Argentina and Uruguay has begun, as well, but progress has been and will continue to be slow due to excessive moisture. Better harvest conditions should evolve with dry weather next week.
UNITED STATES
Early season rice planting is under way in Texas and Louisiana, but conditions elsewhere have not been consistently warm enough to support aggressive fieldwork. Soil temperatures are warm enough for more widespread planting and next week’s statistics may show a boost in field progress. However, a cold temperature forecast for the coming week will curb planting and slow crop development until warmer weather returns and that will likely be in another week to ten days.
Rice prospects in California are much improved this year over those of the past few years because of abundant winter precipitation supporting the removal of water restrictions. California production has not varied much in recent years despite the lack of precipitation at times. This year’s production should been beneficial because of good water supply.
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