New Zealand Dairy Farms Holding Up Well Under El Nino
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, December 14 (World Weather Inc.) – Unlike many El Nino events in the past New Zealand dairy and wheat farms are holding up very well in a below average precipitation bias so far this season. The biggest reason for the region doing so well is the lack of excessive heat, although the past week has been generating some higher temperatures and that is beginning to accelerate drying rates. The nation’s field and range conditions are in relatively good shape, but much will be determined by weather conditions in the next few weeks since there are some moisture deficits and it would not take much heat to deplete soil moisture and induce some vegetative stress.
Precipitation since the beginning of December favored the west coast of South Island, which is normal in an El Nino environment. Rain amounts from December 1-14 ranged from 0.92 to between 6.00 and 8.25 inches of rain. The remaining portions of South Island and southern North Island reported 0.10 to 0.75 inch with a few areas reporting 0.75 to 1.40 inches in the western half of North Island. Temperatures have not been very warm in recent weeks and the lack of hot weather has been ideal in curbing evaporation rates and preventing a serious threat to range and pasture land from developing.
Rainfall has been below average recently in North Island where less than half of normal rainfall has occurred this month with a few areas in the far northern part of the island reporting less than 25% of normal precipitation. Rainfall during November was above average in portions of the same areas in North Island while South Island was driest. Some of the dairy areas in South Island reported 35-70% of normal rainfall in November and amounts this month have been better in some areas and worse in others. As a result, pockets of dryness have begun to emerge, but the situation is far from a crisis. Soil conditions are rated favorably, but that will last as long as some timely rain evolves and there are no significantly warm days ahead.
Soil moisture is slowly decreasing across parts of the nation. Topsoil moisture is still rated adequately in most areas, but there are portions of central and eastern South Islands and a couple of locations in eastern North Island that have marginally short to short topsoil moisture. It is the first time this year that both the top and subsoil were running a little short in central and east-central South Island. The limited moisture situation is not of much concern while temperatures stay mild, but 
as soon as warmer weather settles in on a persistent basis there is going to be a faster rate of moisture depletion and the potential for declining range and pasture conditions will begin to rise.
A normal El Nino environment promotes significant rain along the west coast of South Island, just like that noted above, while other areas trend drier than normal, which has been the case in recent weeks. Continued dryness will further firm up the topsoil in many locations. Grass development will gradually deteriorate as soil moisture decreases and livestock will become more dependent upon livestock feed when the grass stops growing. So far, there have only been a few days with temperatures rising over 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27C) and the coming week is expected to be near to slightly cooler biased once again helping to further conserve soil moisture and maintain very good livestock and wheat production potentials.
Western South Island will continue to receive significant rainfall during the next seven days. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending Sunday may reach over 5.00 inches along the southwest coast, but most other areas will only receive light amounts of 
rain. The coming two weeks are advertised to be notably drier biased in North Island with little to no rain expected. Much of interior areas of South Island will receive some rain in the next two weeks, but amounts will be light. The most important part of the forecast is the temperature expectations and as long as they stay mild there will be no negative impacts from the below average precipitation and limited soil moisture. However, concern is rising that warmer than usual weather may evolve in another week to ten days and if that happens, conditions in New Zealand may begin to deteriorate. Many El Nino events result in drought and that often impacts agriculture, including the dairy industry and sometimes the nation’s wheat production, as well.
Temperatures will trend near normal most often in this coming week with highs peaking in the upper 60s and 70s (16-26C) most often, but a few areas will start seeing highs above 80 degrees (27C) more often especially next week. Low temperatures at night will be in the 40s and lower 50s with colder pockets this week. High temperatures next week may be in the 70s and 80s more often with lows in the 50s.
Today’s outlook for range and pastureland is still rated favorably, but the situation will need to be closely monitored over the next few weeks. It will take a while for the nation to dry out enough to raise a viable concern about dairy and wheat production, but given the performance of other El Nino events the situation is worth watching.
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