Brazil Center West Subsoil Moisture To Carry Crops In Dryness
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, December 14 (World Weather Inc.) – Mostly dry weather occurred during the past week in Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and northeastern Goias where critically dry conditions continue in unirrigated summer crop areas. Much of the rain that did fall was not enough to counter evaporation. Northeastern Brazil continues deep into a multi-year drought and production cuts are likely again this year if 
conditions do not turn around soon. In the meantime, a much more important grain, oilseed and cotton production area in center west Brazil has been and will continue to trend drier this week. The region’s subsoil moisture remains sufficient to carry crops through this short term period of dry and warm weather without seriously harming production, but it will be imperative that significant rain falls as advertised this weekend and next week.
The wettest areas in Brazil during the past week were from southern Mato Grosso do Sul and western Parana through northwestern Rio Grande do Sul where rain totals for the seven-day period ending this (Monday) morning ranged from 3.90 to 9.50 inches. Moisture totals in other areas from the balance of Rio Grande do Sul to southern Goias and southern Mato Grosso ranged from 0.75 to 2.85 inches with locally greater amounts. Rain also fell significantly in Rio de Janeiro, central and southern Minas Gerais and southernmost Espirito Santo where 1.80 to nearly 3.50 inches resulted. One location in Rio de Janeiro reported 4.35 inches of rain for the week. Some flooding was suspected in many of the wettest areas, but especially from southern Mato Grosso do Sul to northern Rio Grande do Sul.
Needless to say, the ground is saturated in much of southern Brazil and reports of soybean rust have increased. Rust thrives in a warm and wet biased weather pattern and even though conditions are good for additional spreading of the rust, the odds still favor good production from much of the 
region especially if drier weather evolves soon.
A few pockets of slight dryness in the topsoil recently popped up in portions of Mato Grosso and Goias due to the lack of significant rain during the past week. Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and Tocantins still have low to critically short soil moisture stemming from an extended period of drier than normal conditions and periods of hot weather. These locations need rain in the near immediately to bolster soil moisture and improve development conditions.
Northeastern Brazil produces nearly 10% of the summer crops in Brazil and production cuts are expected because of ongoing drought conditions this year. In the meantime, summer crop planting in center south Brazil is winding down and some early-seeded crops in center west were replanted recently after too much dryness in November threatened production.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will evolve on a frequent basis in Brazil this week. The precipitation will be enough to keep soil moisture rated favorably in a large portion of southern and center-south Brazil. Northern Brazil rainfall is expected to be erratic and mostly too light to counter evaporation through the end of this workweek because of ongoing very warm temperatures. Some rain is expected in northern Brazil this coming weekend and throughout much of next week and it is at that time that the most significant relief from recent drying is expected. Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul will moisten up quickly and crop stress from this week will quickly abate. Northeastern Brazil will get “some” dryness relief, but the region will need much more rain to seriously change drought conditions.
Rain amounts for the seven day period ending next Monday morning will range from 1.50 to 4.00 inches with locally greater amounts in much of center-south and southern Brazil. Northern Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso to northern Minas Gerais and Bahia will receive 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain which will improve soil conditions in many areas, but a fair amount of the rain will be light until next week and temperatures will be warm enough to keep drying rates running high between rain events. .
Temperatures will be near to above average over the coming week with highs in the north most above average through Friday. Highs in the north will range from 95 to 105 degrees frequently which compares to normal highs in the upper 80s through the middle 90s. Center south and far southern Brazil will see temperatures much closer to normal with 80s and lower 90s common.
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