South Africa Rain Thursday Into Saturday Very Important
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, December 2 (World Weather Inc.) – Little rain of significance was again reported in South Africa’s main summer crop production region during the past week. Soil conditions remain critically dry in many production areas and water reservoirs are still running quite low, as well. The nation’s planting and establishment of corn, soybeans, sunseed, sorghum, cotton and other crops has been poor this spring and a significant cut in production is inevitable if significant rain does not start falling immediately. The outlook for rain Thursday into 
Saturday is very good, but World Weather, Inc., believes less than 20% of the production area will get more than 1.00 inch of rain. Improvements are expected to topsoil moisture in many areas, but without frequent follow up rain and cooler temperatures it is doubtful that a huge improvement in production potential will result.
Light rain was erratically distributed across South Africa during the past week. Rain totals for the seven day period ending this morning ranged from a trace to 0.70 inch with locally greater amounts in portions of North West, Limpopo, northern Mpumalanga, and Natal. Southern Sections of Eastern Cape and Western Cape also reported up to 0.70 inch of rain with locally greater amounts. The remaining production areas were dry.
Soil moisture is very short in much of South Africa. The only areas with adequate or slightly short soil moisture are in coastal locations of Western Cape, Eastern Cape, and southern Natal. Much of 
the rain that has fallen in recent weeks was rapidly lost to evaporation due to the warm weather. Highest temperatures in the most recent week peaked in the upper 80s and 90s Fahrenheit with extremes over 100 degrees. Drying rates were high and kept most areas from seeing an improving trend for soil moisture. Planting and emergence conditions were poor and many producers are still waiting for significant rain before proceeding with planting that is often complete by now.
Rainfall varied across South Africa in November. Limpopo, western Free State, and portions of Natal, Eastern Cape, and Western Cape reported above average precipitation while the remaining areas were drier than normal. Even with the above average rainfall, the precipitation was too infrequent and light while temperatures were quite warm to fix moisture deficits. El Nino is to blame for much of the dryness in recent weeks and it will remain the dominating weather feature through much of the summer.
Corn is the main summer crop produced in South Africa. Soybeans, sunseed, cotton, and other crops are also grown. Natal produces sugarcane while citrus fruit is produced in many areas throughout the nation. Planting of coarse grain, oilseed and cotton crops normally begins in late October and continues into December. Planting this year will likely extend into late December due to the lack of rain in recent weeks. Most of the rain-fed crops that were planted earlier in the season have established poorly. Some crops are irrigated, although the water supply is lower than normal. Production cuts have already occurred and will worsen if there is not a significant improvement in crop or field moisture soon.
Winter wheat maturation and harvest conditions were favorable in much of the country during the past week. The lack of rain and warm weather promoted a good environment for getting the crops out of the ground in a timely manner. However, that same dryness cut production potentials for most of the nation. Additional dry weather 
in the coming two weeks will promote the best possible environment for late season harvesting.
Scattered showers will evolve on a frequent basis Thursday into Saturday in South Africa’s main production region. Some showers will linger in the far east Saturday. Some showers will linger in the far east Saturday. Rain totals will vary from 0.15 to 0.65 inch each day with local totals of 0.65 to 2.00 inches. The number of locations that get more than 1.00 inch of rain will be limited to less than 20% of the entire production region leaving follow up rain of critical importance.
This weekend and the first half of next week will be drier once again, although brief periods of light rain will fall. Much of the precipitation and that which is expected over the next few days will be lost to evaporation due to very warm to sometimes hot weather
Temperatures will often trend above average through the middle of next 
week. Daytime highs will be in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit with several warmer areas pushing the extremes up above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. The lack of significant rain later in the forecast period and warm to hot temperatures will promote net drying in much of the country.
Many farmers may try to plant crops during the next few 
days due the anticipated rainfall. However, establishment conditions will rapidly deteriorate next week, making this week’s rainfall of critical proportions. Crops that have already established will benefit most from any significant rain that falls in the next few days.