Cooling Next Week Raises Snow Cover Need in Russia, Ukraine
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, December 22 (World Weather Inc.) – Frequent bouts of warmer than usual weather recently have restricted snow cover in parts of western and southern Russia and Ukraine. Cooling will impact many of these areas next week raising the need for snow cover to protect crops from any threateningly cold conditions that might evolve. Temperatures will remain in a warm mode through the end of the workweek. Cooler air will begin to drift into the region this weekend with a reinforcing shot of cold air next week. Periods of snow will occur before temperatures plummet, although pockets in Ukraine, lower Volga River Basin, and the USDA defined ‘Southern Region’ may be without snow when the coldest weather arrives. Early 
indications suggest temperatures will stay above the damage threshold in snow free areas, but snow would still be welcome as added protection for poorly established crops against the cold.
Ukraine, the Baltic States, and areas from northwestern Russia through the lower Volga River Basin had little or no snow on the ground December 21. Precipitation was near to below average for most areas from December 1-19 and temperatures were above to well above average in recent weeks. There were a few days in the past week in which snow was present across northeastern Ukraine, parts of Belarus and the Baltic States, but recent warmer weather melted most of it. The remaining portions of Russia and western Kazakhstan are mostly covered by snow.
Winter wheat and rye were planted under poor conditions in Ukraine and neighboring areas of the lower Volga River Basin this autumn. There was not enough moisture in the ground for the plants to establish well and some planting was never completed. Production cuts are likely in 2016 because of these conditions. Crops that did emerge are not well established and are vulnerable to harsh weather conditions this winter. That makes the need for snow cover extremely important during periods of notable cold. Next week’s cooling is not likely to get potent enough to threaten crops with damage, but snow is desired to provide some protection just in case conditions get colder than expected.
Planting of winter crops in other sections of the Commonwealth of Independent States was mostly favorable over the autumn. There was enough moisture in the ground to promote good planting and establishment in most areas. As long as no significant winterkill occurs, crop development should get off to a good start in spring 2016.
Temperatures will remain in a warmer than normal bias through Saturday across the western CIS. Daytime highs will often be well above freezing and will help limit the amount of snow that accumulates. Colder air will gradually seep into the region Sunday and the beginning of next week, lowering temperatures into a more seasonable mode for this time of year. No damaging or threatening cold weather will occur.
Colder air will continue to drift into the western CIS December 30 – January 6. Periods of bitterly cold weather will be possible, but mostly over the New Lands. If any of the coldest conditions reach into Ukraine or far western Russia without significant snow falling first might raise the potential for damage. Most of the bitter cold will stay far enough to the east to minimize this threat, but the situation will be monitored until the cold airmass abates from the region.
Ukraine and neighboring areas in western Russia will remain mostly snow-free through the end of the work week. A frontal passage will erratically distribute snow Saturday evening and Sunday with a reinforcing shot of snow at the beginning of next week. Several areas that are currently without snow on the ground will be blanketed by next Tuesday before the coldest air arrives. There may be some snow-free areas and a close monitoring is warranted even though the odds are highly against any temperatures getting low enough for damage.
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