U.S. Plains Winter Storm To Stress Livestock, Delay Travel
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, December 23 (World Weather Inc.) – A complex double barreled winter storm system will impact the U.S. Great Plains, Midwest and Delta this Christmas holiday weekend. The storm will come in two distinct waves with a third and smaller weather system impacting a part of the region today and Thursday. By the first part of next week, snow will be on the ground across much of the Great Plains and western Corn Belt and flooding will be widespread in a part of the central Midwest. The storm systems will stress livestock by producing heavy snow, cold rain, flooding, windy conditions and falling temperatures. This will be the season’s first major winter storm for the southwestern Plains and the impact on livestock is expected to be harsh because of prolonged mild and tranquil weather this autumn.
A precursor to the bigger weekend storms will take place today and Thursday morning across the Midwest. The storm will be a much weaker version of the one expected this coming weekend and will move from eastern Kansas this morning to areas north of Lake Superior By dawn Thursday. The storm’s fast movement will limit precipitation totals, but there will still be sufficient amounts of moisture to maintain wet field conditions. Moisture 
totals by dawn Thursday will have ranged from 0.20 to 0.75 inch from eastern Nebraska to Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota and Michigan. Similar rainfall will occur from the northern Delta into eastern and southern Illinois and parts of Indiana with a few totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches.
Tuesday’s topsoil moisture was rated adequate to excessive across much of the Midwest with the eastern and central parts of the region wettest along with areas further to the south into the Tennessee River Basin, lower eastern Delta and interior southeastern states. Today’s precipitation event will see to it that saturated soil conditions remain in a large part of the Midwest with some expansion to the northwest.
Not all of today’s precipitation will occur as rain. A band of snow will fall narrowly from eastern Nebraska through northwestern Iowa to eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Accumulations are expected to be quite light due to the warm temperatures and fast movement of the precipitation, but a quick dusting to 2 or 3 inches may occur in a few counties.
A second low pressure center will form Christmas night (Friday night) in eastern Colorado. The system will be small and fast moving once again producing snow across a large part of the northern Plains from western Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming to eastern South Dakota and western and northern parts of Minnesota. Snow accumulations will range from 1 to 4 inches and there will be some potential for upwards to 6 inches from central South Dakota to northwestern Minnesota.
Some wind will accompany this second storm system into the northern Plains and blowing and drifting of snow will occur across much of the region Friday night and Saturday reducing visibilities and causing blowing and drifting of snow. Travel conditions will become hazardous and livestock will be mildly stressed. Most of the northern Plains are already snow covered and the new snow will not be a tremendous problem except for travelers and livestock in central, eastern and northeastern South Dakota into northern Minnesota where the greatest snow is expected.
Friday into Saturday’s storm will be quick to weaken over Minnesota, but it will be successful in pulling greater amounts of cold air into the western high Plains setting the stage for a more powerful storm to evolve Saturday and Sunday before moving through the Midwest Sunday into Monday. The dynamics in the atmosphere will be ripe for colossal storm development in the southwestern Plains. Similar to the preceding storm in the northern Plains Friday into Saturday the system will weaken as it moves northeast out of the Plains states because most of the cold air will stay anchored to the west for a while longer.
Livestock and travel issues in the southwestern Plains will be significant. Cold rain and heavy wet snow will impact a large part of the region from West Texas through Kansas and western Missouri to the upper Mississippi River Basin while torrential rain will impact a large part of the region from the Delta and lower Missouri River Valley to Indiana and parts of Ohio. Some strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from Oklahoma to Indiana where hail, damaging and wind might evolve.
Moisture totals for the weekend and early week storm will vary from 2.00 to 5.00 inches from eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas through Arkansas and Missouri to Indiana and Ohio. Moisture totals to the west from West Texas through parts of central and eastern Kansas to Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin will range from 0.50 to 1.75 inches. Most of the greater precipitation will occur to the east where precipitation will be all rain.
Snowfall of 6 to 12 inches will occur in West Texas and far western Oklahoma with local totals possibly reaching 15 inches in a couple of Texas Panhandle counties. Other surrounding areas will receive 2 to 6 inches with western Kansas getting less than 2 inches. Snowfall will not be nearly as great to the northeast, but 1 to 3 inches and locally more (over 4 inches) may occur in a few areas across Iowa into parts of Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. Most of the snowfall outside of the southwestern Plains will not be very great.
A strong wind will blow across the snow areas from west Texas to Iowa and Wisconsin. Near blizzard conditions may evolve briefly in the southwestern Plains, but most wind speeds outside of the southwestern Plains will stay lighter. Because the snow will be heavy and wet, visibilities will be quite poor and the accumulation rates of snow may get to around 2-3 inches an hour in some locations.
Flooding in the Midwest will be serious enough to cause livestock and travel problems of its own. The ground is already saturated in most of the Midwest and if the 2.00 to 5.00 inches of rain falls as advertised flooding will be serious causing some road closures and possibly drowning winter wheat in several low-lying areas. Major river and stream flooding may occur in a few areas, but if an extended period of drier weather fails to evolve in early January the situation will likely become much worse in time.
A weather pattern change is expected briefly in early January as colder and drier air moves through the eastern U.S. for a several day period. The cold and dry conditions will help expedite runoff, but saturated soil conditions will prevail for an extended period of time. Frequent bouts of similar storminess are expected on into spring resulting in more bouts of significant flooding and the potential for field working delays in the spring.
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