November Weather Leaves West Texas Water Supply Low
By Jared McWilliams and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, December 4 (World Weather Inc.) – Heavy rain fell across portions of Texas, especially north-central parts of the state during the month of November. This wetter bias was welcome from a water storage perspective, although flooding in portions of the region was not quite so welcome and caused some damage to agriculture. 2015 has been a very wet year for portions of Texas and the ground is many times wetter than it has been in years – at least in some areas. It is very interesting to note that despite the moisture abundance a large part of West Texas still has notable water supply deficits. The western half of the state will need an u
nusually wet winter this year to bring water supply back to full capacity. November rainfall in much of West Texas and portions of both the far south and Coastal Bend region was less than usual. Southern areas needed the break after an unusually wet October. West Texas, however, will need additional moisture to assure dryness is not a threat in summer 2016.
A significant rain event occurred over at least a portion of Texas during the November 26-30 period with the greatest rain occurring November 26-27. Some of the precipitation fell as a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and even some snow in the northwestern portion of the state as a cold front cut through the region. The greatest precipitation during this event fell over north-central Texas where rain totals varied from 2.00 to 5.00 inches and locally more. Rain was also significant across the southeastern half of West Texas and central Texas where rain totals varied from 1.00 to 3.00 inches and locally more. Amounts in the northwestern high Plains region and in southeastern coastal areas were lightest with amounts rarely more than 1.00 inch.
The late-month rain event was the largest event during the month of November. A couple of other rain episodes impacted portions of central and northeastern portions of Texas earlier in the month and they, too, contributed to the region’s significant runoff and flooding that was reported. Many locations received amounts varying from 1 to 4 times the normal rainfall during the month with some locations receiving 6 times the normal rainfall.
The late month significant precipitation rain event continued a wetter than usual bias over Texas this autumn. Heavy rain fell throughout much of the state during October including the high Plains of West Texas. The increased rainfall raised water reservoir levels throughout the state compared to mid-spring. The greatest increase in water storage so far this autumn has been in the interior south and north-central portions of the state while eastern portions of the state have remained abundantly wet due to frequent bouts of heavy rain.
Water storage in Texas is still below capacity in much of the state and well below average in the high Plains due to prolonged drought that was still prevailing into early spring. Despite the ongoing low water storage there have been some impressive increases in water storage in various areas around the state.
November’s limited rainfall in the high Plains region and far southern portions of the state during limited water storage increases and maintained a strong demand for greater rain.
Texas has struggled with drought for several years this decade and the state has struggled to receive enough rainfall to bolster water storage for many years. However, increased rainfall this past spring helped ease some long term dryness and rain this autumn resumed the recovery after a few hot, dry, months during the summer.
Water reservoir levels since early May have been bolstered dramatically from north-central and east-central to southeastern portions of the state. Water reservoirs levels are at or above 85% of capacity in north-central and south-central through all of eastern Texas. However, since the heavy rain did not continue in the high Plains during November the region did not see nearly the increase in water storage that took place in eastern parts of the state. Water reservoir levels continue below 50% of Capacity in Edwards Plateau and most of southern Texas while under 25% of capacity in the high Plains. The moisture deficits are still considered to be significant, but relative to water supply figures from the spring, the region has seen significant improvements. Water reservoir levels on May 6 were just 5.6% of capacity in the high Plains region and varied from 37.5% TO 40.2% in the remainder of western and southern Texas.
Overall, rainfall has improved water supply throughout the state this autumn and statewide reservoir levels are currently at their highest levels in several years, However, these levels are still below the 15-year average, mainly because of the drier bias remaining in the west.
Precipitation this winter is expected to continue impacting the southern Plains and moisture totals will be above normal in many locations in Texas. The boost in precipitation will continue helping to improve water storage throughout the state heading into the 2016 production year. With that said, very little precipitation is expected during the first ten days of December. Significant rain is likely to return during the middle of the month with eastern and central locations seeing the greatest impacts once again.
World Weather Inc. believes that the high Plains and southern Texas will get in on the wetter bias this winter, although it may not occur until January and February. Any increase in precipitation that occurs this winter will continue to promote an easing trend in long term dryness and water shortages throughout the state leading to one of the best outlooks for planting and crop development when spring time arrives in 2016.
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