Rain In Northeastern Brazil Will Not Be Enough To Fix Dryness
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, December 29 (World Weather Inc.) – Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and immediate neighboring areas are still dealing with drought and rainfall during the most recent past week was not enough to offer serious change. Northeastern Brazil will receive some much needed rain 
during the coming week that will help improve soil conditions in many locations. However, the rain will not be enough to end drought or restore soil moisture and water supply to normal. Any precipitation will be welcome and should induce some relief, but much greater precipitation amounts will be needed to curb the long term drying trend. Other sections of Brazil will receive enough rain to keep soil moisture rated favorably. Some welcome drying will occur in southern Brazil, where wetness has been a problem recently.
Far southern and center-south Brazil received the most significant rainfall in the main production region during the past week. Rain totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 2.00 to 4.30 inches with local amounts up to 10.00 inches in Rio Grande do Sul. Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias reported 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain. Northern Minas Gerais and Bahia reported a trace to 0.75 inch with local amounts up to 1.00 inch.
Topsoil moisture is rated excessive in a large portion of southern and center-south Brazil with Rio Grande do Sul and some immediate neighboring areas too wet. Flooding has likely occurred in many areas and fieldwork has been sluggish. A period of drier weather would be welcome to firm up the topsoil and promote better crop and fieldwork conditions.
Mato Grosso, Goias, and northern Mato Grosso do Sul have adequate or slightly short soil moisture. Timely rain would be welcome to keep the ground from trending too dry to support the best crop development conditions. Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and much of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro have short or very short soil moisture. Much of the rain that fell during the past week was lost to evaporation. Several inches of rain are needed to bolster soil moisture to more adequate levels.
Production cuts are still expected in northeastern 
Brazil due to the extended period of dryness and periods of hot weather in recent weeks. Many crops have been stressed and established poorly. Rain expected in this coming week will offer a short term respite from the dry conditions and may be sufficient to curtail the declining production trend.
Alternating periods of rain and sunshine will evolve in Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and neighboring areas during the coming week. Rainfall will often be light and erratic through the end of the workweek before increasing this weekend and the beginning of next week. The rain will slowly bolster soil moisture and ease some of the stress to crops. Rain totals for the seven day period ending next Tuesday morning will range from 0.75 to 2.50 inches with locally greater amounts. Moisture shortages will remain in most areas in northeastern Brazil by the beginning of next week.
Center-south and far southern Brazil will receive additional rain through Friday before trending drier over the weekend and beginning of next week. Rain amounts in the coming days will be high enough to keep the ground excessively wet with flooding continuing in some areas. The dry conditions later in the forecast period will help firm up the topsoil. Flooding will slowly recede and many areas will see better conditions for fieldwork. Crop conditions will improve in most locations once the drier weather bias begins.
Center-west Brazil will see precipitation evolve on a near daily basis during the next seven days. Rainfall will be enough to gradually bolster soil moisture to adequate levels. Crop growth conditions will improve in much of the region. A few pockets of dryness may linger in western Mato Grosso by next Tuesday, though this is not a major production area.
Temperatures will trend close to normal during the coming week most often. Portions of center-west and southern Brazil will trend slightly warmer than normal at times, most notably over the weekend and beginning of next week when the driest weather evolves.
Overall, improving conditions will evolve in the dry areas of northeastern Brazil and the wet areas in the south during the next seven days. The main focus will continue to be on Bahia and northern Minas Gerais in January and whether or not periodic rain will continue.
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