North America Cold Snap Next Week To Be Short Lived
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, January 4 (World Weather Inc.) – A deep surge of bitter cold air is expected to debut in the north-central United States and Canada’s Prairies this weekend into early next week. The cold air will penetrate into the central U.S. Plains, Midwest and northeastern states next week, but it should not last more than a few days before warmer than usual biases return. A short 
term spike upward in heating fuel demand is expected and boost in snow cover will be needed in some winter wheat production areas to adequately protect winter crops from the cold.
The cold surge is the byproduct of a recent Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event that impacted the central Pacific Ocean last week. The event resulted in the buildup of stronger high pressure aloft over the arctic forcing greater amounts of cold air to the surface. The cold surge will work its way southward across the central and western parts of Canada late this week and into the weekend before debuting in the northern U.S. Plains late this weekend. The cold surge will reach into the central Plains and western Midwest early next week and then begin to moderate as it moves through the eastern Midwest and the northern and middle Atlantic Coast States.
Temperatures well below average are expected for a few days forcing a spike upward in heating fuel demand in much of the Midwest and Plains states. The higher heating fuel demand will shift to the northeastern and middle Atlantic Coast states during the early to middle part of next week while slowly moderating. Much warmer air will already be returning to the Great Plains and Canada’s Prairies late next week.
Early indications suggest subzero-degree temperatures Fahrenheit will occur southward to the central U.S. Plains and possibly as far south as the northern Ohio River Valley, although it is a little early to get specific on the intensity of the cold. Temperatures may fall below -20 degrees Fahrenheit in the far northern Plains and to around -30 in the Canadian Prairies during the height of the cold surge. Most of the northern Midwest will see extreme lows in the negative single digits with a few negative teens in the Great Lakes region. Temperature extremes in the northeastern states will slightly slip into the negative single digits except in parts of New England where some negative teens will be possible. The cold surge is not expected to be deep enough to reach to the Gulf of Mexico coast or be a threat to Florida citrus areas.
The building high pressure aloft over the arctic is also sending the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index into its negative phase reinforcing the likelihood of cold air reaching south into the middle of the United States. The North Atlantic Oscillation is also expected to ebb more negative, but it will not be nearly as low as that of the AO suggesting that the cold will be retreating northward as it comes into the eastern United States.
All of these changes are short term and are occurring in response to the significant MJO event that occurred last week in the central Pacific Ocean. El Nino will regain control of the atmosphere at the end of next week resulting in the return of warmer biased conditions. The colder weather is not expected to be the beginning of any sustainable cold period that would drive heating fuel demand into a much higher level of demand during the balance of winter. Another cold surge like this may occur later this season, but not before a few weeks warmer biased conditions return to Canada and the northern United States.
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