Brazil Weather Bias Shifting To Favor Rain In North
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, January 4 (World Weather Inc.) – Quite often in the midst of a significant El Nino event there is a shift in weather anomalies across Brazil during the last part of December and early January. Sometimes the trend change is permanent bringing drier weather to southern Brazil, Uruguay and eastern Argentina while northern Brazil trends wetter during the balance of summer. In other years, the trend change is a little more temporary, but 
the persistent patterns of the past usually are not nearly as significant during the balance of the summer season. World Weather, Inc. anticipates some erratic rainfall in Brazil after this week, which promises to be much wetter in the north and a little less wet in the south. Summer crops will find the pattern change to be most welcome and helpful in supporting better production potentials.
Bahia and northern Minas Gerais are still dealing with moisture shortages due to a lack of rain and warm weather in recent weeks. Periods of rain will evolve this week in the northeast which should help alleviate some of the dryness. Some areas will continue a little drier biased for an extended period of time, but sufficient rainfall is likely to bring some needed relief. Additional rain will be needed later in January to continue the improving trend.
Other areas in Brazil are in better shape compared to the northeast, although some areas from northern and eastern Mato Grosso into Goias and Tocantins have struggled with dryness and some heat in the past couple of weeks. Some of these drier northern crop areas will receive heavy rain later this week while portions of center-south and far southern Brazil 
trend a little drier. There will still be enough rain in center south and far southern Brazil to keep soil moisture rated favorably.
Much of the main production region in Brazil reported rain during the past week. Amounts for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 1.15 to 3.25 inches with locally greater totals from much of Rio Grande do Sul through Mato Grosso, Goias, and central Minas Gerais. Southern and southeastern Rio Grande do Sul only reported light rain while Bahia and northern fringes of Minas Gerais received less than 0.30 inch resulting in aggressive drying and accelerated crop stress.
Soil moisture is rated adequate to excessive in much of Brazil outside northern Goias, northern Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo. Many areas in southern and center-south Brazil would benefit from drier weather in the near future to firm up the topsoil and promote a better environment for fieldwork. Some flooding may have negatively impacted a few crops as well.
Northeastern Brazil still has short to very short soil moisture. The region has suffered from drought for a few years and needs a significant 
amount of precipitation to restore water supply and long term soil moisture, but crops do not need that much moisture to experience some improvement. Relief is expected from some of the dryness in northeastern Brazil later this week. Sufficient amounts of rain will occur to lift topsoil moisture and induce some short term crop improvements, but follow up rain will be imperative for the drought to be further eased.
Alternating periods of rain and sunshine will evolve in northeastern Brazil this week. Rain totals for the seven day period ending next Monday morning will range from 0.75 to 2.00 inches with a few locally greater amounts over 4.00 inches. Portions of southeastern Bahia and Espirito Santo will received the least amount of rain. Temperatures will trend cooler across northeastern Brazil later this week as the rainfall evolves. Tuesday through Friday will generate a seasonable range of temperatures with highs in the middle 80s through the lower 90s Fahrenheit.
Crop areas from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul through Goias to Tocantins will see a frequent succession of showers and thunderstorms drift across the region this week. The near daily rainfall will help bolster soil moisture in much of the region. Fieldwork may be slowed at times and flooding in low lying areas will be possible. Rain amounts for the seven day period ending next Monday morning will range from 1.50 to 5.00 inches with locally greater amounts. Any flooding will be very short term because of dry subsoil that will absorb most of the rain if it does not fall too hard and fast.
The driest areas in northern and eastern Mato Grosso have suffered some production cut and about 8% of the original crop was replanted. There is potential for some new planting and replanting to occur this month, especially if rain is going to fall more routinely as World Weather, Inc. anticipates. The situation may raise production potentials for soybeans, but second season corn and cotton planting might be reduced.
Center-south and far southern Brazil will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine this week. Rainfall will often be too light to counter evaporation resulting in some net drying, but that is exactly what the region needs after weeks of excessive rainfall. Temperatures will trend near normal most days with highs in the 80s and lower 90s. The warm weather and lack of significant rain will lead to net drying in much of the region. Fieldwork conditions will improve while development rates remain favorable. A few pockets of dryness may pop up in southern and eastern Rio Grande do Sul by the beginning of next week, but no area is expected to be too dry during the next ten days.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
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