South Africa Drought May Be Eased Next Week
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, January 6 (World Weather Inc.) – Not much rain has fallen in South Africa in recent days and little change was expected through Saturday. The drought has been reported to be the worst in 30 years and some planting has still not been completed. The outlook returns a daily or near-daily risk of showers and thunderstorms beginning late this weekend and lasting through Jan. 20. 
Relief is expected, but rainfall will not be enough to restore production potentials. Some analysts have estimated the nation may have to import 5 million tons of corn this year because production may be half of that from last year which was already down 30% from the previous year.
A few pockets of significant rain fell in South Africa early in the past week, but the majority of the production region received an inadequate amount of rainfall to counter evaporation and improve crop conditions. Portions of western Natal, eastern Free State, western Mpumalanga, and southwestern Limpopo reported 0.80 to 1.70 inches of rain for the seven-day period ending this morning. Other areas received a trace to 0.50 inch with some areas staying completely dry. Much of the rain was not enough to counter evaporation due to the often very warm to hot conditions that dominated the week. Highest temperatures during the week ending today peaked in the upper 80s and 90s Fahrenheit with several areas in western Free State, North West, and western Limpopo warming above 100 degrees.
Soil moisture remains very short to critically short in much of the nation’s summer crop region and no change was expected through Saturday as temperatures stay very warm to hot. The last period of atmospheric instability resulted in a few areas in Western Mpumalanga, southwestern Limpopo, and eastern North West getting a few brief periods of relief from the excessive dryness in December. However, the precipitation was not sustained for more than a few days and the moisture was quickly lost to evaporation. It has been so dry in parts of the nation that planting of summer crops has still not occurred and it is too late now to try. Some crops that were planted have struggled with dryness from early in the growing season and some have likely withered and died. Other crops are stunted and incapable of restoring production potentials to normal, despite any amount of rain that comes along in the next few weeks.
El Nino is the primary culprit in creating this drought and its presence last year at this time reduced nationwide maize production to 9.94 million tons which was one third less than that of 2014. Previous El Nino events in South Africa allowed rain to increase in February and March. Drought conditions are so serious this year that if rainfall improves in February and March like that in the past, crops will have a very tough time recovering because of the near death conditions that are occurring in parts of the nation today. Many crops 
have simply been too dry for too long.
Winter wheat was the first casualty from this year’s drought. Production was down considerably and now some forecasters have suggested maize production will be half of that from last year as long as some rain evolves soon. Soybeans, sunseed, cotton, citrus fruit and sugarcane production may all be negatively impacted with sunseed probably experiencing the greatest losses since the bulk of that crop is produced in the west where dryness has been most persistent.
Today and Thursday will be mostly dry in South Africa. Light and erratic shower activity will begin Friday before a frequent occurrence of showers and thunderstorms evolves across the region late this weekend through January 20. Rain totals for the seven-day period ending next Wednesday morning will range from 0.30 to 0.80 inch most often with local totals of 1.00 to 2.50 inches. The wettest areas will once again occur in western sections of Limpopo and Mpumalanga and eastern portions of both Free State and North West. These are the same areas that received periodic rainfall last month and have the highest yield potentials (which is still below average). Western Free State and North West will receive less than 0.75 inch of rain and many areas will not get enough rain to counter evaporation.
Temperatures will remain above to well above average through Friday with highs warming into the upper 80s and 90s Fahrenheit in eastern summer crop areas and in the 90s to 110 in the west. Daytime highs will cool as the showers and thunderstorms increase with some high temperatures in the 70s and 80s likely in southeastern parts of the nation next week while highs in northwestern summer crop areas cool to the upper 80s and 90s. Drying rates will remain high between rain events.
The expected precipitation and cooler temperatures will be welcome to surviving crops and if the rain falls frequently enough there may be some improvement in production potentials for those crops that have not experienced the worst weather conditions.
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