Indonesia, Malaysia Water Supply, Soil Moisture Still Improving

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By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

Kansas City, January 6 (World Weather Inc.) – Soil conditions and water supply in Indonesia and Malaysia continue improving after prolonged drought in some areas due to El Nino. Only a few pockets in Peninsular Malaysia, Sulawesi, and the Lesser Sunda Islands have a minor shortage of topsoil moisture, but long term water supply and deep rooted soil moisture is still below average following months of restricted rain because of El Nino. Most areas in the archipelago will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next seven to ten days that will keep soil conditions rated favorably. The negative phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will likely restrict rain intensity for the next week to ten days, but conditions may trend wetter later this month. In the meantime, western and southern Philippines need rain and a part of Indonesia and Malaysia will dry down again.

The greatest amount of rain during the past week was reported in the western half of Borneo, western Java, southern Sumatra, and portions of central Sumatra and the southern tip of Peninsular Malaysia. Rain totals for the seven day period ending this morning ranged from 2.75 to 7.00 inches with local amounts up to 9.00 inches. Much of the remaining portions of Indonesia and Malaysia reported 0.75 to 3.00 inches of rain with locally greater amounts. Pockets in northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, and Sulawesi reported less than 0.50 inch of rain.

The improving trend in Indonesia and Malaysia has been ongoing for a while with rainfall in November near to above average, as well, except in the Lesser Sunday Islands and both southern Sumatra and western Java.   The frequent and sometimes abundant rain in the past two months has restored soil moisture for short rooted crops – like rice, sugarcane, corn and a host of other crops. However the more deeply rooted crops are still standing in drier biased conditions and additional rain will be required to assure the improving trend is sustainable.

Main season rice and second season corn planting, establishment, and development conditions have been mostly favorable in recent weeks. Recent rain was enough to promote aggressive growth in most production areas. Corn planting should be complete while rice planting will finish in the coming weeks. As long as timely rain continues, no major crop development issues are expected. Oil palm and coconut trees are experiencing improving conditions and the process will continue as long as frequent rain falls. The 2016 palm oil crop will be reduced because of the lingering effects of drought in 2015.

Rain is expected to occur routinely over the next couple of weeks, but its distribution will be a little lighter and more erratic than usual because of the negative phase of MJO that will prevail for at least the next ten days and perhaps longer. The negative MJO will reduce the amount of rising air that occurs over the archipelago and that will result in weaker thunderstorms and less impressive rainfall.

The situation in           Borneo, Java, Sulawesi, and southern Sumatra will need to be closely monitored because of the potential for returning dryness during this short term period of negative MJO.  World Weather, Inc. is confident that timely rain will occur in the next two weeks to support short rooted crop development, but greater rain will be needed to maintain the recovery of rubber, oil palm and coconut trees.

In the meantime, rain in the Philippines has been most significant in eastern Luzon Island and southward into Samar and northeastern Mindanao. These areas are favorably moist today. Earlier in December, a tropical cyclone that moved into Luzon Island produced heavy rain and induced some flooding. That leaves west-central and southwestern parts of the nation running low on moisture recently.

Eastern sections of the Philippines, most notably eastern Luzon Island, reported widespread rain – some of which was quite heavy. Rain totals in eastern Luzon Island ranged from 3.22 to 6.05 inches with local amounts up to 10.50 inches. Eastern sections of the Visayan Islands and Mindanao reported 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rain. The remaining portions of the Philippines were dry or mostly dry.

Soil conditions are rated favorably in much of the eastern Philippines because of this past week’s rain and that which occurred earlier in December. Portions of eastern Luzon Island may be a little too wet, but that will likely change quickly as the region experiences less rain in the next couple of weeks. Drying conditions were noted elsewhere in the nation and soil moisture was short in some western and southern parts of the nation.

Rice, corn, and sugarcane are being harvested in the Philippines. The lack of rain has not been a great concern in western areas because it has actually promoted a good environment for fieldwork. The wet conditions in eastern Luzon may have slowed or delayed fieldwork at times. Much of the Philippines, outside eastern Luzon, will remain in a drier than normal bias during the next couple of weeks. Harvest operations will advance swiftly because of the drier bias.

Mainland Southeast Asia reported little or no rain during the past week which is not unusual for this time of year. This is the dry season and a lack of precipitation is normal. Central and northern Vietnam will receive 0.50 to 2.50 inches of rain during the coming week with locally greater amounts. Other areas will receive little or no rain.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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