Minimal Rain Continues In North Africa, Eastern Spain

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By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

            Kansas City, January 7 (World Weather Inc.) – Although portions of northern Africa reported rain during the past week, much of the precipitation was too light to counter evaporation leaving Morocco and northwestern Algeria much too dry with crops threatened by drought. Similar conditions are occurring in some eastern Spain locations. The remainder of northern Africa had timely rain early in the autumn season supporting winter crop establishment, but the entire region has been quite dry in recent weeks making rainfall in the remainder of January and February extremely important for improving production potentials in each of these areas. Continued dryness would likely further stress winter crops and promote production cuts.

Northern Tunisia and far northeastern Algeria reported light rain in December ranging from a trace to 1.00 inch with a few locally greater amounts. The remaining portions of Algeria and Morocco were dry. Eastern Spain was also virtually dry during the month of December.

Rainfall in this most recent week varied from 0.20 to 1.30 inches in most of the coastal areas of northern Africa with a local total up to 1.77 inches in far northern Morocco. Areas further inland reported little or no rain just like far eastern Spain. Interior eastern Spain reported 0.05 to 0.40 inch of rain during this first week of January.

The past week of rain did little to improve the overall moisture situation in North Africa or eastern Spain and these areas need substantial rain soon to protect production potentials. Morocco has already endured some permanent production losses because of dryness throughout the autumn planting season. Soil moisture remains very short in most production region from eastern Spain to Morocco, Algeria and northern Tunisia, although the situation in northern Tunisia is probably of least concern because of better rain frequencies in that region. Morocco has experienced some of the driest conditions on record during the past several weeks and needs abundant precipitation to bolster soil moisture. Algeria, Tunisia, and eastern Spain have also been drier or much drier than normal in recent weeks, but planting moisture early in the autumn was much better than that of Morocco.

North Africa and eastern Spain produce a significant amount of durum wheat and barley. Planting normally occurs in November and December. Abundant early season rainfall in northern Africa allowed planting to occur earlier than usual and faster than usual for many areas, but the precipitation diminished in late November leaving December in a net drying trend. Also, much of the abundant rain that fell early in the planting season missed Morocco and was limited in far northwestern Algeria while it occurred routinely and abundantly in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia where the best crop establishment has occurred. Net drying in December, however, likely left some of the early planted crops running low on moisture making this week’s rain very important, although more is needed.

Planted acreage in Morocco is likely lower than normal. Well-established crops in Tunisia and northeastern Algeria can recover from recent dryness with well-timed rainfall during late January and February, but Morocco will need a general soaking and it is doubtful that much of the unplanted fields will get planted because seasonal rains end early in the spring limiting the amount of time crops can respond to the moisture. With that said, some planting attempt might occur if it were to rain substantially soon – but that is not the case.

Light showers will drift across Morocco and eastern Spain Friday and Saturday. A few coastal locations in Morocco will receive more than 0.50 inch of rain while most areas receive less than 0.25 inch. North Africa and eastern Spain will trend mostly dry for the balance of the next seven days. Rain that falls Friday and Saturday will not be enough to counter evaporation, leaving a strong need for widespread rain in all of these Mediterranean countries. Rain potentials in the January 15-22 period are no better with much of the region from eastern Spain to Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia expecting dry conditions.

Temperatures will trend near to above average during the next seven to ten days and that will lead to faster drying rates. This is the cool season and drying does not occur as fast as it does in the warmer months, but a steady decline in moisture will occur until a generalized rain evolves. Most of the moisture that fell this past week will be lost to evaporation in a few days.

Crop growth at this time of year is very slow and that makes the dryness a little less of a threat, but as soon as seasonal warming begins in February there will be an immediate need for moisture or crop production potentials will be accelerated lower. That is one of the primary reasons why significant rain needs to fall in January or early in February so that the moisture is conserved through slower drying rates and crops will have a better chance to benefit from the moisture as it lingers in the soil longer.

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