Brazil’s Driest Areas To Get Rain Soon
Kansas City, November 4 (World Weather Inc.) – Areas from Mato Grosso through Bahia and northern Minas Gerais received much needed rain during the past week. These areas had been drier than normal for much of October along with many other areas in Brazil. Rainfall was more restricted from southern Minas Gerais into Parana and in scattered areas back to the northwest into Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso during the past week. Subsoil moisture is still very low across much of Brazil and pockets in the topsoil remain dry, as well, leaving a need for much more rain in some areas. Most areas in Brazil will receive timely rain during the coming week that will either keep soil moisture at current levels or bolster it.
Rio Grande do Sul and areas northwest into southern Paraguay was one of the wettest areas during the seven day period ending dawn Monday. Rain totals ranged from 2.68 to 5.39 inches, although northern and northeastern portions of Rio Grande do Sul only received up to 1.50 inches of rain. In the meantime, areas from central and southeastern Mato Grosso into Bahia and northern Minas Gerais reported 0.75 to 2.00 inches with locally greater amounts. Western fringes of Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana, and western Santa Catarina received 1.00 to over 3.00 inches of rain.
In contrast, most areas from eastern Goias southward through portions of southern Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo to eastern Santa Catarina only received light rain. Few areas received more than 0.40 inch of moisture and with seasonable temperatures most of the region experienced net drying due to strong evaporation.
This year’s soybean planting pace is behind the usual pace because of delayed rainfall and dryness. Some farmers will change their plans for planting two crops and that will reduce production in 2015. Some planting has advanced, despite dryness, but other areas were too dry for seeding and fieldwork has not commenced. The biggest problem seems to be with seed germination, crop emergence and establishment since rainfall has been rather erratic and light so far this season. Those areas getting significant rainfall during the past week likely experienced the greatest improvement in topsoil moisture and fieldwork likely advanced along with quicker germination and emergence.
Southern Brazil soil moisture is still rated favorably for established crops, but the region from Rio Grande do Sul into southern Paraguay has been too wet at times this season for planting. Some timely periods of drier weather have occurred in far southern parts of Brazil and Paraguay recently allowing some fieldwork to take place, but a period of greater drying is needed. The region will get some additional rain later this week and then a better period of net drying may evolve next week.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be most significant in western and southern parts of Brazil through the balance of this workweek. Northeastern and some center south crop areas will be left dry or mostly dry. The greatest rain event will be associated with a mid-latitude weather system that will move from south to northeast across Brazil crop country Friday through the first part of next week. That weather system brings some moisture of its own, but will also drag some moisture into the system from the Amazon River Basin to help increase rainfall coverage and amounts. The precipitation should greatly improve topsoil moisture in those areas that have not seen much rain in recent weeks.
Overall, center-south, center west and far southern Brazil will receive 0.80 to 2.50 inches of rain with locally greater amounts pushing between 3.00 and 4.00 inches during the next seven days. Bahia, northeastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo will be driest and may have to wait until early next week for their rain and amounts may not be more than 1.00 inch. A few locations in far southern Brazil and Paraguay may get the greatest rainfall and could see totals up near 5.00 inches because of rain that will precede the main rain event Friday into Tuesday of next week.
Topsoil moisture will be rated favorably in most production regions by the middle part of next week. There may still be a few pockets of lower soil moisture, but no area will be critically dry. Subsoil moisture will remain low and it will take a frequent succession of rain events to fully replenish soil moisture.
Portions of center south and northeastern Brazil have been in a hydrologic drought for a few years. This is the fourth year of drought in Bahia and Sao Paulo has reported poor water supply for two summer seasons. Some water reservoirs from Sao Paulo to Bahia are dangerously low varying from 12% to 25% of normal levels.
Planting of corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and other summer crops will continue through November and December. There is still plenty of time to get the crops in the ground if there only going to be one planting this year. However, the trend in recent years is for many producer to generate two crops and the delayed planting this year may prevent some producers from planting the second crop because of the dry season coming too soon to support late planted crops and/or concern about frost and freeze potentials late in the second growing season.
A majority of the cotton is grown in Mato Grosso and Bahia, which normally occurs in November and December. Cotton planting has not likely been significantly impacted by dryness because of timely rain early in the planting season.
Citrus and coffee flowering conditions will improve along with the increasing rain event. However, this year’s delayed and erratic rainfall following last year’s drought may reduce production, especially in coffee areas. Sugarcane is likely off to a poor start so far this growing season and it too could end up with some reduction in yield, although much improvement can still occur.
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