India’s Greatest Rain To Miss Key Wheat, Rapeseed Areas
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, January 15 (World Weather Inc.) – India’s winter crop areas have been drier than usual for an extended period of time, but this is the dry season and even when normal rain falls the ground is often very firm and dry. Frequent warmer than usual weather earlier in the autumn season delayed planting and left a much stronger demand for irrigation than usual and some crops were planted late and others have not seen the best establishment and pre-reproductive growth that needs to occur to support high yields. Weather conditions will change over the weekend when rain is expected to evolve in many central and southeastern crop areas. The moisture will be welcome, but will likely miss some important wheat and rapeseed areas while benefiting a few rice, sugarcane and pulse production areas.
Rain will develop across central India Saturday and increase while shifting to the east Sunday into Tuesday and early Wednesday. The advertised precipitation will be the season’s greatest event and will improve many winter crops from Madhya Pradesh to southeastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Unfortunately for some western and northern grain, oilseed and sugarcane producers, the precipitation will not provide much relief to recent dryness.
Concern about poor soil moisture will remain through the end of this month in Maharashtra sugarcane, millet and wheat production areas because rain that occurs there this 
weekend and next week will be insignificant.
Producers in northern India may also be disappointed since much of the more important wheat, rapeseed, millet and mustard is produced in the higher latitudes where much of this precipitation event will not reach.
Rain totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inch is expected most often in central and southeastern parts of the nation with a few 1.00- to 2.00-inch amounts possible. Since much of the winter crop is irrigated in India rain of any kind usually supplements irrigation and can make a huge difference in production when there are a few bouts of rain throughout the growing season. A lack of moisture in October, November and December coupled with frequent bouts of warm weather has not bided well with some crops and a rain like that of this weekend and early next week would be perfect in stimulating new growth and development ahead of reproduction that usually begins at the end of this month and in February.
Certainly, the winter crops that are impacted by rain in this coming week will see improvements. One of the areas that that will get significant rain is an important pulse production region. Many dry edible beans and lentils are produced in northeastern Madhya Pradesh and southern Uttar Pradesh and some of these areas will get significant rain. This particular region has been one of the driest areas in the nation and the rain could not be falling in a more important region for pulse production.
Northern India produces a higher concentration of wheat and rapeseed 
than these areas that will get rain, but about 25% of the wheat crop will experience net improvements as a result of the coming rain. Many other areas will still need precipitation, but keep in mind that in some years as much as 80% of the wheat can be irrigated. That suggests the concern over this year’s production may be reduced as a result of this coming week’s precipitation.
Rapeseed and mustard, however, are planted more generally in northwestern parts of the nation including much of Rajasthan, parts of Gujarat and neighboring areas of Haryana, Punjab and northern Uttar Pradesh.
World Weather, Inc. believes the trough of low pressure expected in India early next week will have some potential to slow its forward movement and allow some of the rain to reach a little further north in Uttar Pradesh than advertised here. The change may not be substantial, but if we are correct about this possible change there would be greater rain in a larger part of wheat country.
Temperatures will trend quite low behind the precipitation event and there may be a risk of frost and light freezes in northern India during mid-week next week as the air dries out. The frost and freezes will occur just ahead of reproduction and may induce some damage to vegetative growth, but should not harm the plants’ reproductive parts leaving production potentials poised for improvement if significant precipitation falls soon.
A bout of drying will follow this coming week’s rain, but World Weather, Inc. believes another chance for rain will evolve in February while reproduction is under way.
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