China Citrus, Sugarcane And Wheat To Endure Bitter Cold
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, January 21 (World Weather Inc.) – A very cold airmass will impact eastern China this weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be cold enough for some concern over the general health and condition of citrus and sugarcane in southern parts of the nation as well as some of the winter wheat crop in the North China Plain.
Two centers of high atmospheric pressure, one in the south and another in the north over eastern China will see to it that temperatures are quite cold this weekend into early next week. There is potential for damage to a number of crops, but mostly to sugarcane and citrus in the southeast part of the nation.
A 1045-millibar high pressure center is expected to locate over the Yangtze River Basin Sunday morning causing the skies to clear out across most of southern China after rain and snow impact the region today into Friday. The cold high pressure center will likely force temperatures below freezing in 
nearly all of southern China. Only coastal Guangdong, southern Fujian, Guangxi, Yunnan and Guizhou will be spared from frost and freeze conditions. Low temperatures in the lower Yangtze River Basin will slip into the 20s Fahrenheit and readings in Jiangxi, interior southern Zhejiang and northern Fujian will slip to the range of upper 20s and lower lower 30s. Low temperatures further to the west in Hunan and northern Guangdong will be in the 30s with a few upper 20s, as well. There is potential for a few locations in southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, northern Zhejiang and northeastern Jiangxi to experience some readings near 20 degrees or possibly cooler.
It is unclear how long critical temperatures will be met in the region, but early indications suggest that citrus production in Hunan, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Fujian might be impacted. These provinces produce nearly half of the nation’s citrus crop and other fruits and vegetables are produced in the region that may also be negatively impacted. The temperatures may reach damaging thresholds in Jiangxi, Zhejiang and northern Fujian where damage is most likely and some injury to crops may occur in both Hunan and northern Guangdong, but without permanent losses.
Sugarcane is mostly produced further to the west with Guangxi, Guangdong Hainan, Yunnan and Sichuan producing the bulk of cane. That leaves about 3% of the crop in Hubei and Jiangxi where the damage might be greatest. Sugarcane could lose some yield potential for 2016, although it is early in the year and crops may improve.
Some other deciduous fruits are produced in southern China that may also be negatively impacted.
In the meantime, temperatures in the North China Plain are expected to be quite low Sunday and Monday. Extreme lows in the negative and positive single digits Fahrenheit will impact much of the region from Shaanxi, Shanxi and Hebei into Shandong and northern Henan. Most of the coldest air will be in the northern Yellow River Basin where extreme lows may slip into a few negative teens. However, there is some potential for a little snow to fall ahead of the coldest conditions.
Snowfall is most likely in the north China Plain and Yellow River Basin today and early Friday morning. Accumulations will be light varying from trace amounts to 2 inches. Some breezy conditions will also result in the blowing and drifting of snow possibly blowing the protective covering off of wheat in the region raising the potential for a little winterkill.
World Weather, Inc. does not believe conditions will be ideal for a serious bout of winterkill in China. Temperatures may not be quite low enough for a long enough period of time to warrant such conditions. However, pockets of wheat damage cannot be ruled out since many areas were still snow free this morning. Today’s precipitation will say much about the potential for damage during the weekend. Most likely there will be some pocket of possible wheat damage, but most crops will survive.
Winter rapeseed is not likely to be subjected to threatening cold conditions. It will be quite cool, but not cold enough to raise potential for damage.
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