Rain Set To Return In Southern Brazil This Week
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, January 25 (World Weather Inc.) – Southern and portions of center-south Brazil remained in a dry mode during the past week. Areas from Rio Grande do Sul through southern Parana have been drier than normal so far this month and would benefit from a boost in rainfall. 
Rainfall will gradually return to southern and central Brazil this week and that will help alleviate some of the dryness and ease some of the recent stressful conditions. In the meantime, northeastern Brazil continued to report heavy rain during the past week. Water storage levels improved in most locations. Periods of timely rain will continue this week, though most areas will not receive as much precipitation compared to recent weeks.
The greatest amount of rain during the past week fell in Minas Gerais, Bahia, Goias, and western Mato Grosso. Rain amounts for the seven day period ending this morning ranged from 3.00 to 9.00 inches. Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro reported 1.15 to 2.70 inches of rain with local amounts up to 4.45 inches. Central Mato Grosso and a few portions of southern Minas Gerais reported up to 2.00 inches of rain. Much of the remaining production areas were dry or mostly dry.
The ground is saturated in Minas Gerais, Bahia, Goias, and 
western Mato Grosso due to the recent rainfall. Flooding has likely occurred in many areas due to the excessive rainfall so far in January. Soil conditions have changed drastically compared to the end of December, where drought was prevalent in much of northeastern Brazil. Water storage levels are still lower than average due to the extended period of dryness in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Southern Brazil and portions of the center-south production region have short or very short topsoil moisture stemming from the recent drying. Temperatures have not been excessively warm, though drying rates were still high. There was enough moisture in the subsoil to promote good crop development in much of the region despite the lack of topsoil moisture.
Production is still expected to be lower than normal in Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and immediate neighboring areas this year due to the lack of moisture earlier this year. Northeastern Brazil primarily 
produces corn, rice, and cotton with some minor soybean areas as well. Crops in center-south and southern Brazil are in mostly good shape. However, minor production cuts are expected in pockets of Rio Grande do Sul due to the excessively wet conditions earlier this year while crops were being planted and establishing.
Much of Brazil will see a good mix of rain and sunshine this week. Rainfall in southern and center-south Brazil will be enough to either bolster soil moisture or keep soil moisture near current levels. The periods of drying in northern Brazil will help firm the topsoil and reduce flooding. Rain totals for the seven day period ending next Monday morning will range from 0.75 to 2.50 inches with locally greater amounts from Rio Grande do Sul through southern Mato Grosso do Sul and in Bahia and northern Minas Gerais.
Temperatures will trend seasonable most days this week. The warm weather and timely rain will promote aggressive development in most production areas. Early maturation rates will also be favorable in much of southern and center-south Brazil.
With rainfall increasing in the south and some drying occurring in the north, there will be few weather related issues for Brazil this week. The ground will likely remain a little too wet in portions of the northeast for good fieldwork in the next few days.
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