Timely Rain In Argentina Within A Week
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, February 1 (World Weather Inc.) – Drying soil and seasonably warm temperatures have combined to induce the season’s first significant bout of widespread stress for summer crops in east-central and southeastern Argentina. The environment 
may worsen over the next few days, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to evolve later this week and during the weekend in time to limit the stress and possibly stave off a reduction in yield for many summer grain and oilseed crops. Follow up rain will be imperative if the trend toward improving soil moisture is to prevail.
Northern Argentina reported significant rainfall during the past week. Chaco, Formosa, and northern Corrientes reported 3.15 to 8.50 inches of rain for the seven-day period ending Monday morning. Areas from southern Corrientes, northern Santa Fe, and Santiago del Estero through Cordoba and La Pampa reported 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain with local amounts up to 2.40 inches. A few locations in eastern Buenos Aires and central Santa Fe received 0.75 to 1.38 inches while the remaining production areas in central and southern Argentina received less than 0.50 inches of moisture.
Soil moisture in northern Argentina is rated adequate to excessive 
due to the recent rainfall. Many areas in Chaco and Formosa would benefit from periods of dry weather to firm up the topsoil. Fieldwork may have been sluggish in a few locations. Cotton development may have been slowed at times as well. La Pampa, southern Cordoba, and immediate neighboring areas in Buenos Aires and San Luis have mostly favorable soil conditions. The region received enough rain last week to promote good crop development conditions. Soil moisture elsewhere is generally short.
Corn, soybean, sunseed, groundnut, and sorghum conditions in southern Argentina have been mostly favorable so far this year. There was enough moisture to promote good planting and establishment earlier this growing season and enough rain since then to keep soil moisture rated favorably. The recent dryness has not significantly hurt production, although another week or two of dryness will change the situation. There are concerns for 
stress in central Argentina, as well. Timely rain would be welcome in the near future to ease dryness concerns throughout the nation.
Argentina will trend mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers will evolve Thursday through Saturday in much of the region outside of Corrientes, Entre Rios, and eastern sections of Buenos Aires. Portions of La Pampa, Cordoba, and western Buenos Aires will receive 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain while most other areas only receive light precipitation. Much of the rain that falls will not be enough to counter evaporation.
Precipitation potentials will increase across the country Sunday into next Monday when a band of showers and thunderstorms advances across the region. The most recent computer forecast models are likely overdoing the amount of rain that will fall and a close monitoring of the situation is warranted.
Temperatures will trend near to above average this week with daytime highs in the upper 70s and 80s in the far south 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit in central areas and in the 90s in the north. A few extreme highs over 100 will occur periodically in the far north.
If the rain fails to materialize Sunday and next Monday, many areas in southern and central Argentina will be dry enough to suffer yield threatening stress. Development rates will be slowed throughout this week – or at least until significant rain falls. Follow up rain will be extremely important after showers and thunderstorms scatter through Argentina later this week and into the weekend. There will be enough rain later this week and in the weekend to temporarily lift topsoil moisture and reduce crop stress, but follow up rain will be extremely important in preventing stress from returning within a few days of net drying.
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