NW Africa To East Spain Drought Status Changes Little

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By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

Kansas City, February 4 (World Weather Inc.) – No major changes in drought status occurred in northwestern Africa or eastern Spain over the past few weeks. Some rain fell in January, but outside of a few areas the impact on drought in Morocco, northwestern Algeria and eastern Spain was minimal. Morocco and northwestern Algeria are suffering most from dryness and significant production cuts are expected because of reduced planting and poor rainfall during the establishment period. There is still some time for rainfall to improve this year’s production outlook, but rain will have to start falling very soon and occur routinely through the spring to bring back as much production potential as possible.

Morocco, northern Algeria, and northern Tunisia reported little or no rain during the past week. Rain amounts were too light to counter evaporation in the areas that did receive rain. During January, coastal locations of northern Africa reported 0.75 to 2.80 inches of rain. The moisture was welcome, but other than the northernmost part of Morocco and areas from northeastern Algeria to Tunisia the rain was not great enough to counter evaporation.

Outside of a few pockets in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia, soil moisture is short or very short in the main winter wheat and barley production areas. Much of the region outside coastal locations has suffered from drought conditions since the last quarter of 2015 when much of the planting took place.

Winter wheat and barley reproduction normally begins in February and continues in March. Timely rain will be needed during this period of time to promote the best development conditions and improve production potentials. If rain fails to evolve production cuts will be more dramatically reduced.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite derived Vegetative Health Index clearly identifies the driest region with central and southwestern Morocco suffering most from dryness. However, many other areas in northwestern Algeria and Spain are dealing with moisture shortages and crop stress, as well. The situation in late January compared to that of a year earlier is starkly different with most crops in good to excellent condition a year ago from northwestern Africa to Spain.

Coastal locations of northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia that currently have adequate topsoil moisture or a slight shortage of moisture will lose most of the moisture to evaporation in the next week. Other production areas will remain critically dry. Seasonably cool temperatures have helped to reduce crop moisture demand and allow plants to lie dormant or semi-dormant while conditions are so dry, but as soon as seasonal warming evolves crop development will resume and the demand for moisture will rise sharply stressing crops more threateningly until significant rain falls.

There is still hope for better rainfall to improve the late planted wheat and barley. However, significant rain will be needed during the second half of February to have a chance for some of the crops to reproduce in a better environment. The European computer forecast model run has suggested a more frequent “potential” for rain in the next ten days, but the GFS model runs have been minimizing rain potentials recently. World Weather, Inc. believes that there will be potential for rain a little more often, but until atmospheric moisture increases it will be difficult to get a good soaking of rain to occur. The situation still needs to be closely monitored since there is still significant potential for additional production cuts and yet timely rain may still come along to at least offer some temporary relief.

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