Drying Reported In South Africa’s Main Production Region

By Andrew Owen

Kansas City, February 4 (World Weather Inc.) – Many parts of the main summer crop production region in eastern South Africa reported light rain during the past week. However, moisture totals were generally too light to counter evaporation and net drying resulted in much of the region. The nation’s best soil conditions evolved in late January, but this week’s weather resulted in a step backward in the improving trend and the next two weeks will only produce erratic rainfall resulting in status quo conditions. No period of the growing season was more stressful than that in December, but recent weather and that expected will probably not provide much of an environment to turn around crop production.

There is still time for better rainfall to improve some of the crop before maturation begins. Scattered shower activity will evolve on a frequent basis in portions of eastern Free State and neighboring areas through the end of next week that will lower drying rates and improve the moisture profile in a few areas. However, moisture deficits will continue for a significant amount of the production region.

Eastern Cape and Natal reported the greatest and most widespread precipitation during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 0.50 to 1.70 inches with locally greater amounts in Eastern Cape. One location in southeastern Free State reported 1.35 inches of rain during the past week while neighboring areas reported 0.50 to 0.75 inch of rain. The remaining crop areas in Free State, Northwest, Limpopo, and Mpumalanga received little or no rain. Temperatures were often warmer than normal. Highest temperatures during the past week were in the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit with warmer pockets. A few locations warmed above 100 degrees.

Soil conditions are poor across South Africa’s summer crop production region. There is little moisture and warmer than normal temperatures in January further increased drying rates and firmed up the soil. The South African Weather Service announced that 32 temperature records were broken in January due to the extreme heat. Improvements were noted for a brief period of time for the soil during the second half of January due to timely rain, although much of that moisture was recently lost to evaporation.

Most crops have been seriously impacted by dryness this year. Cotton and sorghum probably have the smallest losses since they tend to perform better in dry environments than other moisture hogs, like soybeans and corn. Some officials at Grain SA told Reuters News in late January that they would be lucky to produce 5 million tons of corn this year which is down from 9.94 million last year. Last year’s production was already reduced by nearly a third because of a less intense drought in 2014-15, which helps to make this the worst drought in decades. Soybeans and groundnuts have also been hurt significantly along with sorghum, cotton and sunseed.

In addition to the summer crops, livestock stress has been a problem across the country. Many producers reported livestock losses.

Scattered showers will evolve in the eastern half of South Africa on a frequent basis through the end of next week. Rainfall will favor eastern Free State and neighboring areas while North West and Limpopo trend drier than the areas further to the south. Daily rain amounts will often be light and not enough to counter evaporation. However, drying rates will be lowered and many areas could see a slight boost in soil moisture. Rain amounts ending next Thursday morning for eastern Free State and neighboring areas will range from 0.75 to 2.50 inches with locally greater amounts. North West, Limpopo, and eastern fringes of Mpumalanga and Natal will only receive up to 0.75 inch of rain. Temperatures will trend in a seasonable range due to additional cloud cover and periodic showers. Daily highs in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit with a few extremes near and over 100 will be plenty warm enough to maintain aggressive drying between rain events.

The rain will only offer brief relief to dryness. Moisture deficits will continue in much of the region and crop development conditions will remain less than favorable. Crop improvement will be possible if greater rainfall evolves, but it will have to occur soon since crops are often too advanced in March to respond to drought easing rainfall.

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