Northern U.S. Plains, Western Canada Prairies Need Moisture
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, February 11 (World Weather Inc.) – Portions of the northwestern U.S. Plains and western Canada Prairies have seen warmer and drier than normal conditions so far this winter. These areas entered the winter season already carrying a shortage of moisture stemming from little precipitation last summer and autumn. Weather pattern changes must occur soon to head off a possible problem with planting, emergence and establishment of 2016 crops. There is still plenty of time for change, but with El Nino conditions expected to linger into spring the odds favor a continuation of below average precipitation, restricted snow cover and warm temperatures No near term weather pattern changes will occur through the end of next week.
The majority of Canada Prairies’ annual precipitation occurs during its growing season. El Nino conditions last year robbed many areas in the western Prairies of important moisture leading to drought conditions in both northern and far southern parts of Alberta. Some of the moisture deficits bled over the border into western Saskatchewan. Northern Alberta recorded 3.00 to more than 5.00-inch moisture deficits during the 2015 growing season and areas in southern Alberta reported deficits of 3.00 to a little more than 4.00 inches.
Precipitation since the beginning of November has been below average for a large portion of the Prairies. Most locations received 40% to 80% of normal precipitation from November 1, 2015 – February 10, 2016 with a few exceptions. A band from south-central Alberta through portions of northern and central Saskatchewan received near normal 
precipitation. Southwestern fringes of Alberta and southeastern Manitoba received near to above average precipitation. There were a few pockets in central Alberta and southeastern Manitoba that reported less than 40% of normal precipitation. The lack of precipitation was coupled with warmer than normal temperatures in much of the Prairies November through January 2016.
In the U.S. northern Plains, there has been a tendency for precipitation to be lighter than usual while temperatures were above normal. The combination of these conditions has led to some dryness in the soil, but the situation in Montana and western North Dakota is not nearly as tenuous as that in western Canada’s Prairies.
Soil moisture is rated short from North Dakota and Montana through several portions of Alberta and the southern and western sections of Saskatchewan. Many of the areas that dried down last autumn and have not yet seen any improvement since the winter season has set in. Snowpack is very low to nearly non-existent in a part of the northern Plains and southwestern Canada’s Prairies and temperatures during the past week peaked in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit in much of the same region.
The concern for the Prairies and northern Plains is that the lack of snowpack and already short soil moisture situation will promote poor 
planting, emergence and establishment conditions this spring. Winter crop development will also get off to a poor start because of dryness and it will be imperative that all of these areas from Montana and western North Dakota to most of Alberta get significant moisture this spring to support a normal crop planting, emergence and establishment season.
Planting in these areas of concern will not begin for many weeks leaving plenty of time for improvement. Spring crop planting normally begins in April and May, so there is time for better precipitation to evolve. However, below average precipitation and warmer biased temperatures are expected to continue for the next several weeks in much of the northern Plains and 
Canadian Prairies due to lingering El Nino conditions.
An active jet stream will promote frequent precipitation in the Prairies and northern Plains during the next week to ten days. The higher frequency in precipitation will help bolster snow depths. Portions of Montana, southern Alberta, and immediate neighboring areas will miss out on some of the most significant precipitation due to a weak high pressure ridge over western North America. These areas will experience periods of light precipitation, although not enough to significantly increase snow depths or soil moisture.
Alberta and Montana will often trend warmer than normal during the next seven days while areas further east see temperatures trend near to below average. The warm weather 
will increase drying and melting keeping snow cover to a minimum. New snowfall will have difficulties remaining on the ground for an extended period of time because of the warmer bias in temperatures.
Eastern portions of the Canadian Prairies and the northeastern U.S. Plains are not expected to encounter as much heat and dryness as that in western Canada.
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