Timely Rain Reported In North Africa Over Holiday Weekend
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, February 16 (World Weather Inc.) – Winter wheat production areas from northern Morocco through northern Tunisia reported rain over the extended U.S. holiday weekend that helped bolster soil moisture. The greatest amount of precipitation fell along 
coastal locations while many areas further inland received little or no precipitation. Precipitation amounts in most locations were not enough to fix the long term moisture deficits that evolved in past months, but short term improvements to crop conditions were quite likely. Significant rainfall is still needed in the near future to promote the best environment for the winter wheat and barley. Morocco and coastal Algeria will see periods of light precipitation through the beginning of next week while Tunisia trends mostly dry. The anticipated precipitation will still not be enough to completely reverse the dryness.
Rainfall during the past four days ending this morning ranged from 0.20 to 1.00 inch in much of the production region in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Local amounts up to 2.10 inches were reported in coastal Algeria and there were also many pockets in Morocco that reported little or no rain. The rain offered minor improvements to the moisture profile, though most locations still have a shortage of moisture.
Winter wheat and barley in Morocco and northwestern Algeria were planted in a poor environment during November and December due to a lack of soil moisture. Emergence and establishment conditions were poor resulting in uneven emergence and poor stands with some crops withering and dying 
during the weeks of dryness that occurred since planting. Crops were more favorably established in northeastern Algeria and Tunisia where autumn rainfall was more routine and supportive. The recent rainfall was enough to offer brief relief from the stress, but a significant amount of moisture is still needed to completely alleviate dryness and to support crops in the best possible manner. Much of the region has been drier or much drier than normal since the beginning of the year.
There is still time for significant rainfall to induce much better crop production potentials, but it had better start occurring now because aggressive crop development usually begins in the next few weeks. Winter wheat and barley reproduction normally occurs March. Rain will be needed to promote the best development conditions in the next few weeks before maturation begins in April.
Scattered showers will produce light precipitation in Morocco and Algeria today. After a brief period of dryness Wednesday, an upper level low pressure center will promote scattered showers in Morocco and a few neighboring areas in northwestern Algeria Thursday through the end of the weekend. These showers will then shift into Algeria at the beginning of next week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending next Tuesday morning in Morocco will range from 0.25 to 1.25 inches with locally greater 
amounts. Moisture totals in Algeria will range from 0.10 to 0.50 inch with locally greater amounts. Tunisia will trend mostly dry through the beginning of next week.
The upper level low will promote periods of cooler than normal weather in Morocco and Algeria later this week and this weekend. The cooler bias will help conserve soil moisture by slowing drying rates. Temperatures will trend closer to normal most other days during the coming week and that will resume a more aggressive drying rate. The week’s precipitation will help induce some improvement in Morocco crop and field conditions, but it will take a more frequent rain pattern with greater amounts of moisture to more seriously turn around production potentials after such a long time without rain. Algeria will experience less supportive new rain and Tunisia will likely trend drier over the coming week raising need for additional timely rainfall by the first days in March.
This week’s moisture will help stimulate new crop development and follow up rain will become very important as crops start more aggressive development and move toward reproduction. The region may continue to experience less than usual precipitation in March and if that proves correct there may be more stress and production threats lying ahead. Any prolonged dry and warm weather that occurs this spring prior to a general soaking rain would likely raise crop stress levels significantly and that might translate into lower production even for areas that were adequately established last autumn.
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