Wet Weather Impacting Fieldwork In Center-South Brazil
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, February 23 (World Weather Inc.) – A large region in interior southern and center south Brazil is saturated with moisture and 
significant runoff has occurred recently raising the potential for local 
flooding. The region includes Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, Sao Paulo, Santa Catarina and a few immediate neighboring areas. These areas will 
continue to receive significant rain during the next seven to ten days that will perpetuate the excessively wet conditions raising the potential for more generalized flooding. The biggest impact will be on harvest and port loading delays, but some concern over soybean and cotton quality is expected to build, as well. In the meantime, northeastern Brazil is drying out once again and this trend may continue for a while due to persistence of El Nino conditions. Crop stress is returning to northeastern Brazil, but the situation would have been many times worse had there not been a general soaking of rain in January.
A band from southern Mato Grosso do Sul through eastern Parana and southern Sao Paulo reported heavy rain during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven day period ending this morning ranged from 2.75 to nearly 5.00 inches with a local total of 7.50 inches in coastal Parana – at the port of Paranagua. Most other areas from southern Goias and southern Minas Gerais through Rio Grande do Sul reported 0.80 to 2.65 inches of rain during the past week with locally greater amounts. Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and northern Goias reported up to 1.75 inches of rain while northern Minas Gerais and Bahia were mostly dry.
Temperatures were mostly seasonable during the past week. Highest temperatures peaked in the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s Fahrenheit with a few extremes in the upper 90s. The lack of rain and warm weather promoted aggressive drying in northeastern Brazil where topsoil moisture is now rated short to very short while subsoil moisture was marginally adequate to slightly short. Soil moisture elsewhere in Brazil is rated adequate or excessive. Center-south Brazil is wettest due to the significant precipitation that fell during the past week.
Frequent rain and soggy field conditions have induced declining harvest conditions in most of the wetter areas in the south. The situation has not brought on much trouble up until now, but rain is expected to prevail for a while and that raises some greater concerns. Port loading delays have occurred at both Paranagua and Santos, but recent rain has been trending greater in Paranagua where some delays are becoming more significant. Periods of dry weather would help improve general fieldwork and reduce loading delays, but no extended period of drying is likely for a while. There is sufficient moisture in the ground to carry crops for nearly three weeks without much concern over late season crop conditions, but instead of drying down the region will continue to experience rain on a near-daily basis through the middle part of next week. It is not unusual for a wet finish to the rainy season in Brazil during El Nino events and this year is going to be no different.
Northeastern Brazil will need rain in the near future to reverse the recent drying tendency. However, the moisture may be more important to late season crops, like sugarcane, coffee, cocoa and cotton rather to grain and soybeans because of the lateness of the season. Production cuts are already expected from northeastern Brazil and weather in the next few weeks is unlikely to change that by much. The most moisture sensitive phase of crop development is passing for soybeans which will reduce the impact of returning dryness. Sugarcane and rice might be a little different with both crops still vulnerable to production cuts if it trends too dry. Center west and far southern Brazil crop conditions and outlook are good.
Rain and thunderstorms will evolve on a frequent basis in center-south Brazil and parts of Paraguay during the next week to ten days. The rain will continue to slow maturation and harvesting while also impacting loading delays. Soil moisture will remain excessive in most locations. Yield and quality concerns will continue to grow if the wet weather bias continues through the first half of March. Center-west Brazil will also receive enough precipitation to bolster soil moisture during the next seven days, but delays to fieldwork are not likely to become significant.
The warm weather and lack of significant rain will continue for northeastern Brazil through the beginning of next week. Any rain that falls will not be enough to counter evaporation. Moisture reductions will continue and many crops may become stressed. Rain will be needed at the beginning of March to avoid further production cuts.
Southern Brazil will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the coming week. Maturation and harvesting will advance swiftly around the rain. There will also be enough moisture to promote a good environment for crops that are still developing.
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