Favorable Rainfall Eases South Africa Dryness
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, February 26 (World Weather Inc.) – Portions of South Africa’s coarse grain and oilseed production region received beneficial rain during the past week. A boost in topsoil moisture and late season crop conditions resulted from the greatest rain 
that fell from western Limpopo and eastern North West into eastern Free State. Late season crops may be benefiting from the rain, but early maturing varieties have likely seen irreversible damage. Soybeans and early corn may not see as much improvement as some peanut and sorghum crops. However, in nearly all cases the relief comes a little too late in a very stressful crop year to seriously turn around production.
Rainfall varied across South Africa during the past week. The greatest amount of rain was reported in eastern portions of both Free State and North West and in a part of western and central Limpopo. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending Friday morning ranged from 0.60 to 1.15 inches with local amounts up to 1.75 inches in southeastern Free State. Portions of Mpumalanga and Natal reported up to 0.63 inch of rain while other areas were dry or mostly dry. Western Free State and western North West were mostly dry. Light to moderate precipitation was erratically distributed in Western and Eastern Cape.
It is not unusual for improved rainfall to occur in some of South Africa’s grain, oilseed and cotton production areas in February and March. Often the crops that were planted late because of dryness in the spring respond best to the late season rainfall. However, drought in December this year 
was one of the most severe on record and it has likely left some crops in a position of being incapable of responding to improved rainfall. Crops in that kind of irreversible damage are mostly in unirrigated western Free State, western North West and Northern Cape production areas. Crops from western Limpopo and eastern North West southward into western Natal and eastern parts of Eastern Cape have seen periodic rainfall in recent weeks and will respond best from this week’s rain.
Rainfall this month has been near to above average in eastern Free State and Gauteng where the greatest improvement in crop and soil conditions has likely resulted. Last month rainfall was near to above average in eastern North West, western Limpopo and Gauteng and this month’s rain in the same region has likely brought additional crop improvements.
Corn is the main crop produced in the wettest areas of eastern South Africa, although some sorghum, soybeans, peanuts, sunseed and cotton are also produced in the region. Production for the year is still expected to be below average for many of these crops, but the areas reporting the greatest rainfall over the past two months will experience the best yields and quality. Early season crops have likely received rain a little too late for the most significant improvements, but any crop still filling would likely have benefited from the most recent precipitation.
Today’s topsoil moisture is rated short to adequate across the region reporting the greatest rainfall this week. Soil moisture in Eastern Free State and immediate neighboring areas have the best soil conditions. Subsoil moisture is also favorable in the same area. Soil moisture in western Mpumalanga and western Limpopo was short to marginally adequate and would benefit from additional rain. Actually, most of South Africa would benefit from additional moisture, but the coming week will trend a little drier.
The one region that has not seen enough rain to seriously improve soil moisture has been western North West and western Free State. These areas are considered minor summer crop production areas, but sunseed, peanuts and some sorghum are produced in the region along with a little corn and each of these crops will yield poorly because of inadequate rainfall during much of the growing season.
Precipitation would still be welcome in the coming weeks to keep drying rates down and promote better development conditions for late season crops. Crop outlooks could begin to improve if the timely rain pattern continues through March. Periodic rainfall will not significantly impact maturation or fieldwork in coming weeks since the ground remains dry or very dry and will absorb moisture quickly limiting disruptions to farming activity.
Scattered showers will continue to produce timely rain today and Saturday in portions of eastern South Africa. Rain amounts will range from a trace to 0.50 inch with local amounts up to 0.75 inch. After Saturday, alternating periods of light rain and sunshine will occur through the end of next week. Daily rain amounts will be too light to counter evaporation in most locations. Net drying will evolve firming up the soil once again – at least for a little while. Greater rain is suggested for the second week of March.
Temperatures will trend near to above average through next Friday. Daytime highs will warm into the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit most often with warmer pockets in North West and Limpopo. Drying rates will be highest Sunday and next week when little or no precipitation will fall.
The drying tendency next week will lead to deteriorating crop development conditions across South Africa.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
©2016 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution.