U.S. Delta, Midwest Rain To Start Delays To Planting Season
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, March 7 (World Weather Inc.) – This week’s significant rainfall that is predicted for areas from eastern Texas through the U.S. Delta and into parts of the lower Midwest marks the beginning of a wet weather pattern that will induce some 
prolonged early season planting delays for parts of the region. A complex storm system this week will produce excessive rain and some serious flooding, but it is just a single event and there will be several more over the spring season as a result of lingering El Nino conditions. The periods of heavy rain will maintain wet field conditions and promote flooding periodically with this week’s flood likely from eastern Texas to Missouri and east through the Delta and portions of Illinois. Follow up storm systems will either maintain soggy field conditions or return those conditions periodically between periods of drier weather. The bottom line will be quite a challenge for some producers in the region to gain access to their fields for corn, rice, cotton and other early season planting that normally occurs in the next several weeks.
The Delta reported near to slightly below normal precipitation in February while areas from eastern Texas through Illinois received less than 
normal precipitation. Temperatures during the month were near to above average, as well, which promoted net drying at times. However, rain fell often enough to feed upon the great amounts of soil moisture that were left over from greater rainfall earlier this winter to keep the ground saturated at times. The wet bias in soil conditions will have a huge role to play in this week’s significant rain event that will be measured in multiple inches resulting in significant runoff and flooding.
Soil temperatures are warm enough to promote corn planting in portions of the lower Delta and across most of Texas. Areas near the Missouri Bootheel need warmer conditions before planting can begin, but those areas rarely plant this early and there is plenty of time for warmer and drier conditions to evolve, but will they? Lower Midwest planting usually occurs most significantly in mid- to late April with a few fields often being planted in early April. That may not be the case this year if El Nino has much to say about the situation.
A first significant round of rain is expected this week beginning Tuesday and lasting into the coming weekend. Multiple waves of rain will impact the region and each will add more moisture to the region and it will not take long for the ground to become excessively wet with significant runoff evolving.
Strong showers and thunderstorms will evolve from East Texas and eastern Oklahoma through Missouri and portions of western and northwestern Illinois Tuesday before shifting into the Delta and Illinois Wednesday as the front tracks easterly. An upper level low pressure center that evolves over the southern Plains midweek will also promote showers and thunderstorms for portions of the Delta, Arkansas, southern Missouri, and western Illinois Thursday. A few lingering showers from the low will produce light rain Friday and this weekend as well. Dry weather will then return to these areas at the beginning of next week.
The wettest locations for the seven day period ending next Monday morning will be from East Texas and Louisiana through Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, and southern Missouri. Moisture totals will range from 2.00 to 8.00 inches with locally greater amounts possible. Rain amounts in central and northern Missouri through Illinois will range from 1.00 to 5.00 inches with locally greater amounts. Eastern sections of the Delta will receive 1.00 to 3.50 inches of rain most often.
Planting and establishment will be slowed or delayed in the Delta, most notably western areas, later this week and weekend due to the heavy rain. Flooding will be possible and could cause many farmers to replant corn in the south where some fieldwork has already occurred. More likely the wet weather will prolong planting delays because this is not the only storm system to impact the region for a while. There are more precipitation events slated for the area through April. Fieldwork could be delayed into late month for some areas from this week’s storm alone and that assumes no other weather systems for a while – which is not likely to be the case.
Eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and much of Arkansas west of the Delta do not produce as many crops as areas to the east, although rain will be heaviest in the region and will likely promote significant flooding with damage to personal property.
Portions of Illinois and southeastern Missouri will also receive enough rain to promote flooding, although it may not be quite as serious as in Arkansas. Abundant moisture will negatively impact soft red winter wheat in a few pockets.
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