El Nino has Failed To Bring Timely Rain To Northern Mexico
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, March 11 (World Weather Inc.) – El Nino events usually produce greater than usual winter precipitation in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States, but so far this year, rainfall was only above average in January. Conditions since 
then have been rather dry and unirrigated crop areas need rain. Northern Mexico irrigates a large portion of its winter crop, but supplemental rainfall nearly always helps promote the best yields and quality. The soil is very short of moisture in unirrigated areas and would benefit from timely rain in the near future. Several crops may have been stressed in recent weeks due to the prolonged dryness and periods of warm to hot weather. Northeastern Mexico will receive timely rain today with another shot of light rain slated for the end of next week. Northwestern Mexico will remain in a warm mode through the end of next week.
Rainfall in the northern production areas so far this month varied across northern Mexico. One location in western Chihuahua reported 1.61 inches of rain while the remaining portions of northwestern Mexico reported a trace to 0.63 inch of rain. A few pockets have also been dry so far this month. In northwestern Mexico, rainfall ranged from 0.79 to 2.68 inches since the beginning of March with a local total of 5.30 inches 
in eastern Coahuila, which is outside the main production areas. Much of the rain in northeastern Mexico fell in the past 48 hours.
The main production areas in northern Mexico reported less than 25% of normal precipitation in February. Despite the recent rainfall in the northeast, soil moisture is short or very short in much of northern Mexico. The recent rain in northeastern parts of the nation helped improve topsoil moisture slightly, although most areas still have a shortage of moisture. Significant precipitation will be needed in the near future to further bolster soil moisture and reverse the moisture deficits.
The main winter crops produced in northern Mexico are wheat, sorghum, and corn. Much of the corn is harvested from January through March and the dry weather has been mostly favorable. Winter wheat was planted at the end of last year and is now filling and maturing in much of the region while sorghum planting has been occurring for the past few weeks in the northeast. Rain would improve sorghum planting 
and establishment in the next few weeks while the corn and wheat do not have a pressing need for moisture. The outlook for these crops is mostly favorable despite the lack of rain over the winter.
An upper level-low pressure center over Texas will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms in northeastern Mexico today. Rain amounts will range from 0.50 to 2.00 inches with locally greater totals possible. After today, northeastern Mexico will trend dry over the weekend and first half of next week. Light shower activity will return toward the latter part of next week that will only offer light precipitation. The recently planted sorghum will welcome today’s rainfall. Many crops will establish in a good environment in the next few days before the moisture is lost to evaporation. Wheat maturation and general fieldwork may be slowed until the ground has a chance to firm.
Northwestern Mexico, much like neighboring areas in southern California and Arizona, will remain in a dry mode through the end of next week. The environment will be favorable for crop maturation and harvesting while some minor stress may continue for crops that are still developing.
Spring crop planting normally begins at the end of April and May. There is still plenty of time for better rainfall in northern Mexico to improve the outlook for planting season. However, much of the rain that falls in northeastern Mexico today will be lost to evaporation later in the forecast period and will not be available for the crops.
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