U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Dryness To Last Into Late March
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, March 15 (World Weather Inc.) – A large portion of the central and southern Plains have been drier than normal for the past three months. The lack of precipitation coupled with periods of warm weather has led to soil moisture shortages that have become most 
significant in recent weeks. Cool weather in January and February helped conserve soil moisture by keeping evaporation rates low. Warming conditions this month have accelerated drying rates making the soil dry down quickly and at the same time that new crop development was beginning. The high Plains region has the driest soil and the greatest need of precipitation in the near future. Areas further to the east have more adequate moisture in the soil, although many areas would still benefit from timely precipitation. The drier than normal bias will continue for much of hard red winter wheat country through the end of this month, although there will be a few short term bouts of light precipitation. Temperatures will trend near to above average most days through the end of this month and the combination of limited precipitation, low soil moisture and warm weather will exacerbate the situation raising a greater level of concern over wheat production potential.
Early February was the last time some areas in the central Plains received significant precipitation. That storm was a blizzard that laid down up to 18 inches of snow and significant moisture from northeastern Colorado to Iowa, including much of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Prior to 
that period some above average precipitation fell from central Kansas through southeastern Nebraska in mid- to late January. Outside of these two significant precipitation events there have been a few bouts of significant moisture in the southeast half of Oklahoma and northern Texas leaving most other areas a little dry.
Average precipitation totals over the 90-day period ending March 15 ranged from 25% to 75% of normal. There were several locations in southeastern Colorado and neighboring areas in Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas that received less than 25% of normal precipitation. Pockets in central and southwestern Oklahoma, along with many areas in southern Nebraska and northeastern Colorado, received near to slightly above average precipitation.
Some of the driest conditions occurred in the most recent 30 days when much of Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, northwestern Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle received less than half of normal precipitation with many areas reporting little to no precipitation. Temperatures were much warmer than usual over the same 30-day ending March 13. The combination of warm and dry weather promoted net drying while warming brought winter crops out of dormancy.
Wheat in Texas, Oklahoma, and portions of southern Kansas was brought out of dormancy at the end of February and beginning of March. 
Growth conditions in portions of central Oklahoma have been good due to some timely rain and more adequate levels of soil moisture. Soil moisture for western Oklahoma and much of Texas has been short since the crops were brought out of dormancy and winter crop growth rates have been slow in many areas. No improving rainfall is expected for the next couple of weeks and if that forecast verifies a much larger portion of hard red winter wheat will be troubled by dryness and facing some potential production declines.
Far southern portions of hard red winter wheat country have received greater and more frequent rainfall in the past 30 days. The moisture coupled with warm temperatures has stimulated new crop growth and development. The acceleration in plant development raises a new fear over possible late season frost and freezes. The recent faster crop development rate may lead to more advanced crop growth and development quicker than usual and that could raise the potential for permanent crop damage in any significant frost and freeze event that occurs as crops approach reproduction.
The majority of winter wheat production areas in the central and southwestern Plains have some concern over dryness and greater concern over potential winterkill if temperatures suddenly trend too cold without snow on the ground. No bitter cold conditions are likely, although frost and freezes will impact the central Plains later this week that might raise the potential for a little crop damage. Most of the wheat is not advanced far enough to be seriously threatened by the this week’s colder weather, but dry soil and dry air may surprise some folks with colder than expected low temperatures.
Wheat development in the high Plains region and in much of central Kansas and south-central Nebraska has been slow because of dryness. At this time of year, dryness is often a benefit when crops are breaking from dormancy early because the lack of moisture will restrict new crop growth leaving crops in a less freeze vulnerable stage of development.
Little precipitation is slated for the central and southern Plains through the beginning of next week. Any precipitation that does fall will not be enough to counter evaporation. A low pressure center and frontal passage could bring precipitation to portions of the region during the middle of next week, although the heaviest rain will potentially fall outside the main production areas. Conditions may not change much in the last week of this month leading to greater crop stress.
Nighttime low temperatures will often dip near or below freezing during the next several days in portions of the high Plains region. Lows will often be in the 20s and lower 30s Fahrenheit through Saturday with pockets that cool into the upper teens in Colorado Thursday and Friday. Some of the new wheat growth will be burned back by the nightly freezes, but much of the wheat is not far enough advanced in its development to sustain permanent production damage.
Other than the cool weather over the next several nights, hard red winter wheat country will generally see temperatures trend near to above average. Temperatures will be coldest Friday with many areas only warming into the 40s and 50s. Highs through Thursday will be in the upper 50s and 60s with portions of Texas and Oklahoma warming into the lower and middle 70s today and Wednesday. Highs Saturday will return to the upper 50s and 60s before warming into the upper 60s and 70s Sunday and the first part of next week. Portions of Texas will warm into the lower 80s Monday and next Tuesday.
The warm weather and lack of rain will promote aggressive drying for much of the central and southern Plains. Growth rates will continue to be slow for much of the region until significant rain falls.
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