Brazil Harvest Weather To Improve With Less Rain
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, March 16 (World Weather Inc.) – A period of drier than normal weather will evolve in a large swath of Brazil through the middle of next week. The reduction in precipitation will be a welcome change for many areas that have been wet or 
excessively wet in recent weeks. Harvest progress in early season corn and soybeans will advance faster in the net drying biased environment. In the meantime, subsoil moisture will remain favorable for late season crops and there will be some brief periods of light precipitation that will help slow drying rates and maintain the best possible conditions for immature crops.
Areas from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul through Sao Paulo and portions of southern and western Minas Gerais were among the wettest areas in Brazil’s grain, oilseed, cotton, rice, sugarcane, coffee and citrus production areas during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 1.00 to 4.40 inches with local totals up to 5.70 inches in Mato Grosso. Central and southern Rio Grande do Sul through Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul reported 0.50 to 3.00 inches of rain with many areas in southwestern Rio Grande do Sul dry. Western fringes of Bahia reported a little more than 1.00 inch of rain while one location along Bahia’s Atlantic coast reported 2.36 inches of rain. Northeastern Minas Gerais and the remaining portions of Bahia were dry or mostly dry.
Topsoil conditions were rated excessively wet in much of the nation’s most important crop areas. Portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Rio Grande do Sul have mostly adequate topsoil moisture while northeastern Brazil continues to have short or very short moisture. Flooding receded in portions of Sao Paulo and Parana in recent days, although it may still be an issue for a few locations.
Drier weather is needed in the coming weeks to firm up the topsoil and promote a better environment for maturation and harvesting. There is already plenty of moisture in the soil for crops that are still developing. A couple of dry weeks will not significantly harm these crops. If the wet bias continues harvest delays will become more significant and the potential for some crop quality changes will begin to rise. Recent rainfall has been excessively great and needed drying is necessary to protect production and to expedite harvest and port loading progress.
The only areas that would benefit from rain are in the dry areas in northern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Bahia. The northeast of Brazil is still suffering from prolonged drought that has persisted for much of the season. Significant rain fell in some of these areas during January, but the return of dry conditions since then has raised the need for more precipitation, but preferably after this year’s harvest is complete.
Southern Brazil will be mostly dry through Friday afternoon. Any rain that falls will be rapidly lost to evaporation. A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms will then slowly advance across the region Friday evening through Monday morning. Many areas will receive 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain with local amounts over 2.00 inches. The rain will likely slow fieldwork in the wettest areas and could impact maturation rates as well. Dry weather will return once the band of showers shifts to the north Monday afternoon through next Wednesday. Rain amounts will not be enough to significantly impact yields or quality.
Center-south and center-west will see alternating periods of light rain and sunshine through Monday. Rain amounts will often be too light to counter evaporation with a few exceptions. The lack of precipitation will gradually improve maturation and fieldwork conditions in most areas. Rain potentials will increase Tuesday and next Wednesday when the band of showers in southern Brazil shifts in center-south and center-west production areas. The increased rainfall will likely slow or delay harvesting in many areas. Until then, there the drying tendency will be welcome.
Northeastern Brazil will remain in a dry mode through the middle of next week. Growth conditions will remain poor in much of the region while maturation and harvesting advances with few weather-related issues. Production cuts are still expected this year stemming from the drought that plagued the region during the planting season and much of the growing season. No major changes are expected during the next week.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
©2016 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution.