U.S. Hard Red Wheat Should Come Through Freeze Okay
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, March 20 (World Weather Inc.) – Most of the U.S. hard red winter wheat country was impacted by freezing temperatures during the weekend. The cold air shocked crops throughout the region and will likely help stymie growth for a little while. Permanent crop damage “might” have occurred in a few fields of Colorado, southwestern Nebraska, far western Kansas and into the Texas and 
Oklahoma Panhandles, but most of the crop was still in the vegetative stage and should survive the cold without a production cut. Temperatures were notably cold in other areas, too, and any jointed fields in the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle or from southwest into west-central Kansas might have been damaged. However, World Weather, Inc. believes most of the crops will come through the freeze without a tremendous change in production potentials.
Extreme low temperatures down into the range of 5 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit from eastern Colorado and far western Kansas to western Nebraska might have been cold enough for permanent crop damage if wheat had reached the more advanced joint stage. Similar conditions were suspected for crops from the northern Texas Panhandle through southwestern Kansas to west-central Kansas where low temperatures were in the teens. Recent USDA crop reporting from the region was quite inadequate to properly assess the potential for production losses. However, World Weather, Inc. believes production cuts will be restricted because of the coldest areas were also the driest areas in the region with crop development most restricted. Wheat development has struggled in recent weeks except in irrigated fields and those will be the areas most vulnerable to damage.
Wheat in the late joint stage would have been damaged in these temperatures, but last week’s limited USDA reporting suggested only a very small part of Kansas and Oklahoma had reached the early joint stage and for that reason we believe permanent damage will be limited across the region, but without greater information from the region it cannot be assumed that there was no damage at all.
Vegetative growth was certainly burned back in the cold and crops will be stressed for a while as they attempt to repair the damage. Some of that recovery will be hampered by this week’s brief return of very warm to hot temperatures. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be back into the 80s and near 90 degrees from west Texas to the heart of Kansas and southeastern Colorado. Some of the heat will hang on in the southeastern corner of wheat country Wednesday before finally abating.
The early week heat wave will be followed by another bout of cold air with temperatures not quite as cold as the weekend, but cold enough for additional frost and freezes. The see-saw variance in temperature extremes will be stressful for wheat and will not only leave some crops in a state of shock, but some soil heaving might also occur to raise the potential for a little root damage.
Other short term periods of cool weather are expected late this week and again early next week that will keep new crop growth in check. What the crop needs most now is a general precipitation event. Moisture and mild to cool weather is always best for wheat recovery after a period of weather extremes like this.
The precipitation outlook is not very great, but some snow and a little rain will fall briefly Wednesday from Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska with a few follow up showers Saturday and Sunday in the balance of the wheat production region. Moisture totals for the week ending Sunday, March 27 will be 0.05 to 0.35 inch with a few totals to 0.50 inch. The precipitation will be erratic, but greatest in Colorado, northwestern Kansas and Nebraska because of the snow event expected Wednesday. Snowfall may range from 2 to 6 inches across the region and moderate wind speeds will induce some tough travel conditions and some livestock stress. The environment will be stressful for animals, but it may be good for wheat subjected to extreme weather recently. There is potential for this week’s storm to weaken and be a smaller impact on the region. The situation will be closely monitored.
Another precipitation event “may” reach into wheat areas during the middle part of next week, but confidence in that event is also low. However, if all three precipitation events occur and no more temperature extremes occur in the next two weeks there may be some eventual crop improvements, but it will take a while for the situation to turn around after the extreme temperatures seen recently and those expected into mid-week this week.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. cannot be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
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