Ukraine, Southern Russia Warming Brings On Crop Growth
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, April 7 (World Weather Inc.) – Seasonal warming has finally brought on some wheat and rye greening in Ukraine and southern Russia recently. In contrast, a very large part of Russia is still buried in snow and it may be a while before the 
snow melts and soil temperatures warm enough for spring planting. Soil moisture is adequate to abundant in most of the western CIS putting to rest some of the worry lingering from dryness last autumn. Continued improving tendencies are expected in the next couple of weeks except in the far south where net drying is expected.
Soil temperatures Wednesday were warm enough to bring winter crops out of dormancy in much of Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region, a part of the lower Volga River Basin and in western Kazakhstan. Early growth has been sluggish in many areas because the number of days with warm temperatures has still been restricted, but that will change with additional warmer than usual weather that is expected through the next ten days.
Soil temperatures need to be 4-6 degrees Celsius to support wheat and rye development and most of the dark blue color on the chart above fits that requirement. Crop development will steadily increase as the warmer 
temperatures prevail over the coming week.
There has been quite a bit of concern about the performance of winter crops in Ukraine and southern Russia this year after the very dry planting season that occurred last autumn. Most winter crops that emerged and established reasonably well are poised to perform very well this spring.
Soil moisture has been bolstered in all of the previously driest areas and crops that did not establish well last autumn will have a chance to do so this spring. Wheat and rye are both capable of setting new tillers in the spring and it might be surprising to some analysts and traders later in the year when Ukraine and Russia end up harvesting a larger than expected crop. All of this will be predicated upon seasonable warmth this spring with no damaging freezes 
and a continuation of favorable soil moisture.
Much less precipitation is expected in this coming week across the southern crop areas in the western CIS where crops are greening, but that may help to firm up the soil in areas that are wet and to allow soil temperatures to warm a little better. Once the topsoil firms up a little bit spring planting of various early season crops will get under way. Some of that planting may have already started recently.
Precipitation will be greatest in northern Russia in this coming seven days and then from northern Ukraine and Belarus to the Ural Mountain region April 15-22. Net drying is expected over the two weeks in Russia’s Southern Region and southern Ukraine, as well as Kazakhstan. These predicted drier biased areas will be closely monitored for returning dryness in the topsoil over the next few weeks, but most likely some timely rain will arrive later this month to replenish topsoil moisture and perpetuate a good early season crop outlook.
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