Brazil Harvest Advances Well; Safrinha Corn Worry Remains
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, April 13 (World Weather Inc.) – Drier conditions promoted aggressive harvesting and fieldwork during the past week with the exception of Mato Grosso and far southern Brazil where rain continued to fall periodically. Harvesting of soybeans and the first corn crop should wind down in the next few weeks as long as the dry weather bias continues. Southern Brazil is excessively wet and would 
benefit from drier conditions in the near future to improve fieldwork. Second season corn (outside of Mato Grosso) is experiencing a steady decline in soil moisture that will eventually induce significant stress that might harm production potential later this month and in May. Timely rain is needed to restore favorable topsoil moisture and help assure good crop growth and development prevails through the balance of reproduction. The dry tendency will continue for much of center-south, southern portions of center-west, and northeastern Brazil through the next ten days to two weeks while far southern Brazil has a mix of rain and sunshine.
Areas from eastern and southern Parana through Rio Grande do Sul reported rain during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 0.55 to 3.40 inches with several areas near and along the Uruguay border in Rio Grande do Sul reporting 4.72 to 6.10 inches of rain. One location in northeastern Rio Grande do Sul also reported 7.80 inches of rain. Mato Grosso received up to 3.90 inches of rain while much of the remaining production region was dry. Temperatures were seasonable most days.
The ground is saturated in much of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina where corn, rice and soybeans are produced. The wet 
conditions close to the Uruguay border have been a serious problem for unharvested rice – not only in Rio Grande do Sul, but across northern Uruguay and eastern Argentina, as well. Most of the corn has dealt with the exceptional moisture situation relatively well, but drier weather is needed to promote a better crop drying environment. Dry weather is needed to fix the situation, but more waves of rain will fall first.
Pockets in Mato Grosso are also abundantly wet while much of the state has adequate soil moisture. Topsoil moisture elsewhere in Brazil’s summer crop areas is running short or very short.
Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and portions of Goias are critically dry stemming from the extended period of drier than normal conditions and often warm weather that occurred in much of the summer. Northeastern Brazil has suffered from a multi-year drought and is in need of significant rainfall to reverse the moisture deficits. Production cuts are expected despite a period of timely rain earlier in the year.
Brazil’s soybean harvest was 83% complete earlier this week which was up from 81% average. The first corn crop harvest was 76% complete, up from 63% in 2015 and 74% in 2014. The recent drying promoted a more aggressive environment for harvesting and general fieldwork, but it was also creating stress for sugarcane, some late season coffee, cotton and rice. The biggest concern in Brazil over recent drying is to the Safrinha corn crop which is in the midst of reproduction and early filling making it most vulnerable for large percentage losses in yields.
PRODUCTION PERCENTAGES BY STATE FOR SECOND SEASON CORN
Mato Grosso 37%
Parana 31%
Mato Grosso do Sul 14%
Goias 8%
Sao Paulo 5%
Bahia 3%
Minas Gerais 1%
Mato Grosso produces the largest share of second season corn with 37%. Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul represent another 42% of the crop and subsoil moisture is still favorable in these areas, although the topsoil is quickly drying down. Today’s driest topsoil is in Goias, Bahia and Minas Gerais, representing 12% of the second season corn crop. However, subsoil moisture in these drier areas still supporting crops for a little while longer.
World Weather, Inc. believes that 20-25% of the Safrinha corn crop was planted late enough to be impacted by the building 
dryness in Brazil. Despite what some forecasters have claimed the dryness and warmth in Brazil during April is not that unusual, but with such a large percentage of second season corn and cotton planted late, the impact of accelerated drying will be big on this late season crop. Lower yields and crop quality will result if there is no significant rain in the next two to three weeks and that does not seem very likely.
Crop moisture stress will continue for the next few weeks and lower yields are likely because of it. In the meantime, cotton could be negatively impacted, as well. Sugarcane and rice would be more likely to suffer from the drying tendencies in Brazil over the next few weeks than cotton since cotton performs better in a warm and dry environment than the high moisture demand crops. Late harvesting of early season summer crops will advance swiftly, however.
There is still time for improved rain to fall and stop the decline in production potentials for late season crops. However, that is not in the forecast for a while. Any precipitation that falls in center-south, center-west, and northeastern Brazil in the next ten days to nearly two weeks will not be enough to counter evaporation and late season crops will remain stressed. The best crop development will continue in Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul where the best topsoil moisture is present today.
Subsoil moisture is still favorably rated in many second season corn production areas, although it is decreasing and will become short to very short in another ten days to two weeks. It is this shortage of subsoil moisture that is of greatest concern in Brazil because once that moisture reserve is depleted summer crops will become more seriously stress and yields will be impacted. The last 20-25% of the second season corn planted in Brazil will reproduce in late April and May and it is that crop that stands to lose the greatest yield. Early planted second season corn will be done with reproduction before the moisture situation runs critically low. Production cuts in the second season crop might range from 5% to 12%.
Southern Brazil will see a mix of rain and sunshine through next Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce significant rain today with a few lingering showers Thursday and Friday. Southern fringes of Rio Grande do Sul will continue to receive significant rain over the weekend and Monday while areas further north are dry. Light rain will then shift into northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina Tuesday into next Wednesday. Rain totals for the seven-day period ending next Wednesday morning will range from 1.50 to 6.00 inches in southern Rio Grande do Sul with locally greater amounts possible near the Uruguay border. The other portions of southern Brazil will receive 0.40 to 1.25 inches of rain with locally greater amounts. Fieldwork will often be slowed, though there will be opportunities to get into the fields between rain events.
The additional heavy rain in southern Brazil will heighten concern over unharvested rice conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, Uruguay and neighboring areas of eastern Argentina where harvest delays will be further prolonged.
Temperatures will trend warmer than normal in southern Brazil and closer to normal in the remaining areas through the middle of next week. Highs will often warm into the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit with many areas in the north frequently warming into the 90s. Portions of southernmost Rio Grande do Sul will also only warm into the 60s several days. The warm weather and lack of rain will promote aggressive drying for most areas outside of southern Brazil.
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