Eastern U.S. To Be Plagued By Wet, Cool Bias For A While
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, May 10 (World Weather Inc.) – Spring planting progress has advanced relatively well so far this year, despite a relatively high frequency of rainfall. Today’s more efficient farming equipment can accomplish much in a relatively short period of time and this is one year in which the technology is keeping the production outlook mostly good, despite the frequently wet biased conditions. Weather in this coming week will trend 
cooler across the Midwest and that is expected to slow drying rates between rain events and there are still a few rain systems that will maintain muddy conditions or induce some brief bouts of flooding in the next ten days. The combination of wet and cool conditions may allow more of this year’s planting in the eastern Midwest to slip further behind average. That will place much pressure on for a week to ten days of dry and warm weather later this month so that planting can advance significantly during a yield favoring period.
The main corn and soybean production areas in the Midwest outside of North Dakota and northern Minnesota generally received 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain for the seven-day period ending Monday morning. Pockets in central and eastern Illinois, western Iowa, and eastern Nebraska received more than 2.00 inches of rain. North Dakota and northern Minnesota received little or no rain of significance. Despite the absence of heavy rain during the past week, many areas are still excessively wet in the topsoil due to periods of heavy rain during the last few days of April and beginning of May. Much of the production region has adequate moisture in the topsoil as of this morning with the topsoil in North Dakota and northern Minnesota marginally short.
Corn planting progress is 64% complete across the U.S. as of May 9, which is up from 50% in 2011-2015 average. Soybean planting is 23% 
complete, up from 16% in the same 5-year average. However, Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana are behind in planting due to the periods of rain and lack of significant drying between rain events. Corn planting in the western Corn Belt is ahead of the five year average, but Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota are reporting a slower than usual pace for soybean planting because of recent rain.
An active jet stream will bring a series of atmospheric disturbances to the Midwest during the next ten days. The frequent precipitation will often slow or delay planting and general fieldwork in much of the Midwest. Areas from southeastern Missouri through Kentucky and Ohio will be wettest with rain totals ending next Tuesday morning ranging from 1.50 to 3.00 inches and local totals to 4.00 inches and more. Areas from Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota through Michigan will receive 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain by next Tuesday morning with locally greater amounts. The Dakotas will only receive 0.05 to 0.50 inch of rain during the same period.
The seven-day rain totals make it sound like there will be no breaks in the rain. However, Thursday and Saturday will be dry in the western Corn Belt and the eastern Midwest will be dry late Thursday into Friday morning. Next week will trend drier for a little while as a cold, dry, airmass drops into the region briefly. The cool air will help stop the repetitive rain events, but only for a little while. Temperatures will be far enough below average that when the warmer and more-moist air returns to the region late next week and into the following weekend there is liable to be another significant rain event.
Although temperatures will trend near to above average today and Wednesday, cooler air will shift into the Midwest for the remainder of the coming week. Temperatures will trend near to below average Thursday through next Tuesday with highs peaking in the 50s and lower 60s Fahrenheit north and 60s and lower 70s south most often. The cool weather and additional precipitation will lower drying rates and keep many farmers out of the fields for an extended period of time. The most severe planting delays are expected in the lower Midwest where the heaviest rain will fall.
Frost and light freezes will be possible in portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest Friday through Monday. The coldest conditions Friday will occur in Montana and North Dakota and Saturday will be coolest in both North and South Dakota and Minnesota with temperatures dropping into the lower and middle 30s with pockets in the upper 20s. Permanent crop damage is expected to be low since most of the crops that were planted recently are not out of the ground and the growing point for most of the emerged corn is still below the surface suggesting crops will recover in time. However, frost will damage leaves and that will set back crop development since crops will spend a great amount of energy repairing the damage instead of growing. That delay in crop development will be like planting a full week later and it will reduce some of the benefit of early planting – in some areas.
The main concern in the coming weeks for the eastern Corn and Soybean Belt will be the abundant topsoil moisture. An extended period of dry weather will be needed to promote the best environment for planting. If the wet weather bias continues too long it will translate into lower production potentials.
In the meantime, planting delays will also be possible in northern and central portions of the Delta during the coming week. The region experienced much needed drying during the past week that helped expedite planting progress. However, the disturbances that advance across the Midwest will also help produce rain at times in the northern and central Delta. The lower Delta will continue to experience net drying and that should promote aggressive planting and establishment.
Hard red winter wheat conditions in the central and southern Plains are generally rated favorably despite some minor dryness concerns in the Texas Panhandle and southeastern Colorado. Some scab and rust continues to impact a part of the region, but aggressive crop development has yield potentials bolstered quite favorably making the wet weather disease factor a relatively small one. Alternating periods of rain and sunshine will evolve during the coming week to ten days maintaining a favorable production outlook.
Drying was noted in much of the southeastern United States during the past week. Planting and establishment conditions improved across the region and should stay favorable for the next ten days.
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