Saskatchewan Rain Improves Moisture Profile For Many
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, May 12 (World Weather Inc.) – A significant storm system impacting much of Saskatchewan and Montana this week has bolstered soil moisture after a prolonged period of dryness setting the stage for improved spring planting and crop 
establishment. Many areas in southern and west-central Saskatchewan, as well as Alberta, have been struggling with dryness since last autumn due to a drier and warmer than usual winter season. The overall area of dryness was reduced by this week’s storm, but concern about Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan will continue for the next few weeks or however long it takes for a significant rain event to evolve. Late next week will be the earliest that rain can fall in the drier areas of Alberta and western Saskatchewan and confidence in the event is low suggesting planting will continue in a poor moisture environment. Now that the large storm has passed, the focus of weather attention will be on temperatures and the potential for additional freeze damage on early emerged fields.
Southwestern and south-central Saskatchewan reported the greatest amount of rain in the Prairies during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this (Thursday) morning ranged from 0.63 to 3.11 inches with a few areas near the U.S. border receiving up to 4.00 inches of rain. Radar estimates suggest the region between Regina and Swift Current southward to the U.S. border was wettest and some fields in the region will likely have some standing water for a little while. The sandier soils will give up much the moisture surpluses relatively fast.
Areas from central through eastern Saskatchewan to northwestern Manitoba reported 0.59 to 1.30 inches of rain this past week with a few areas 
suspected of getting notably more. Central Manitoba received up to 0.80 inch while southern and northwestern Alberta received 0.20 to 0.75 inch with locally more. The remaining portions of the Prairies received little or no rain of significance, including a large part of Alberta’s driest area.
Topsoil moisture is now rated favorably from much of southern through northeastern Saskatchewan to northwestern Manitoba. A few pockets are excessively wet in the south and a few RM districts in southeastern parts of Saskatchewan have need for follow up rain. Despite a lack of rain in recent days, other sections of the eastern Prairies also have a generally favorable moisture profile.
Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan have a shortage of moisture due to little rain and periods of warm weather in recent weeks. The only exception is in the Peace River region in northwestern Alberta where soil conditions are fair to good.
After some light rain falls today (Thursday) in western and southern Alberta, the western half of the Prairies will be dry through Monday. Scattered shower activity will evolve Tuesday through next Thursday in portions of the Prairies, although precipitation totals will be too low to fix moisture deficits for the drier biased areas in the western Prairies.
The lack of follow-up rain will help improve planting and general fieldwork conditions for the wetter areas in Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba over the coming week. However, cool temperatures will reduce drying rates and may limit field progress at least for a while. Crops will establish favorably in most areas once the ground firms. However, some of the drier farms in the western Prairies may have to wait for rain to fall before proceeding with much more planting.
A cold airmass that has already produced significant freezes in portions of Alberta and western Saskatchewan will spread across the Prairies tonight and Friday dropping temperatures into a below average bias and inducing some threatening frost and freeze conditions. Many crops are not far enough along in their development to be seriously harmed by freeze conditions. However, that is not the case for canola and some of the coldest areas may suffer permanent damage warranting some replanting. Leaf damage will occur in nearly all areas exposed to freeze conditions and the replacement of damaged leaves might set back crop development reducing some of the advantage of early season planting. Temperatures will rebound into a near or above average bias most days next week.
Extreme lows already this week have ranged from -6 to -2 Celsius across much of Alberta’s driest region with extremes to -8 in the traditionally colder locations in and near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains in southwestern Alberta. The temperatures in Alberta have been cold enough to induce damage, but a complete assessment of the impact will not be available for a few days. Freezes tonight and Friday night will induce other areas of possible damage.
Lowest temperatures over the next two days will slip to -4 or -5 Celsius in a few of the traditionally coldest areas in Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta. Most lows will be -3 to +2 and many crops will tolerate those temperatures without much permanent damage. Crop conditions will deteriorate while the damaged leaves burn off and are replaced. Similar conditions are expected in the northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest.
In addition to the frost and freezes, the cold airmass will help lower drying rates across the Prairies during the next few days. Fieldwork delays may be extended for the wettest areas in southern Saskatchewan.
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