Tropical Cyclone Produces Heavy Rain On India East Coast
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, May 19 (World Weather Inc.) – Tropical Cyclone 01B formed in the Bay of Bengal off the lower east coast of India earlier this week and the storm was producing some heavy rainfall in a few areas from Andhra Pradesh to southern Odisha where local flooding was suspected. The storm 
will drift a little further away from India’s central east coast over the next few days with landfall ultimately expected in southeastern Bangladesh this weekend. Winter rice quality might be compromised, but the storm’s moisture should prove beneficial to sugarcane and coffee.
The storm was 697 miles southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh moving northeasterly at 5 mph while producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 mph. At 0900 GMT today the storm center was more precisely located near 15.5 north, 82.1 east. Tropical storm force wind speeds were occurring out 95 miles from the storm center.
Tropical Cyclone 01B will slowly intensify today and early Friday while staying relatively close to the central east coast of India. The storm will experience a diminishing trend Friday into the weekend as it moves over colder ocean water and experiences some wind shear resulting from a mid-latitude trough of low pressure passing through the northern Bay of Bengal. The storm will move a little further away from the coast late this week before possibly moving inland over southeastern Bangladesh late Saturday or early Sunday.
The storm had produced 1.00 to 4.00 inches of rain from southern Andhra Pradesh coastal areas to southern Odisha while one location along the upper Andhra Pradesh coast reported 6.45 inches.
Additional rainfall of 1.50 to more than 4.00 inches will occur along the upper Andhra Pradesh and lower Odisha coast over the next couple of days while additional rain in southern India and in interior east coastal areas will vary from 1.00 to 2.50 inches. Rainfall in Bangladesh, northwestern 
Myanmar and far Eastern India will vary from 3.00 to 7.00 inches with some potential for upwards to 10.00 inches near the coast.
The wet conditions will come with strong wind speeds, mostly along the central east coast of India and in southeastern Bangladesh. Wind speeds varying from 30 to 50 mph will occur along the coast while peak wind speeds near the storm center will reach up over 70 mph briefly Friday. Not much wind damage is expected in coastal areas, but flooding and persistent rain may raise some potential for damage to unharvested winter rice from Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh. Some sugarcane in southern India is likely benefiting from the rain.
The storm will move across the northern Bay of Bengal later this week and into the weekend spreading some of its rain into Odisha, India, but its ultimate landfall may end up over the southeastern Bangladesh with some impact on the northwest coast of Myanmar. The system will be closely monitored, but its close proximity to land and the cooler ocean water in the northern Bay of Bengal is likely to inhibit its development preventing the system from being much of a threat to crops and property, other than heavy rainfall and local flooding.
The Madden Julian Oscillation event responsible for recent rainfall in southern India is expected to shift to the east into Indonesia and other Southeast Asian nations next week and into the last days of May. This movement will bring back quieter weather to southern and east-central India for a while and the southwest monsoon season may start off a little erratically.
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