Brazil Weather Remains Poor For Some Late Season Crops
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, May 23 (World Weather Inc.) – Several areas in center-south and interior southern Brazil reported significant rain during the past week. The rain maintained wet field conditions and restricted fieldwork. Rain will return to most of the same region later this week and into this weekend after a few days of net drying. The additional rain will maintain wet field conditions and promote a mostly good environment for early planted winter wheat that has established well. However, second season corn harvest delays will be possible in Mato Grosso do Sul and neighboring areas if the 
wet bias lasts much longer. Drier weather is also needed for late season wheat planting. Most cotton and second season corn maturation and early harvesting further north will advance under favorable conditions, but production cuts have occurred in many areas because of dryness.
Rainfall during the past week was greatest in Parana, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul with moisture totals ranging from 0.83 to 3.66 inches. Northern and central Rio Grande do Sul reported a trace to 1.00 inch of rain while southern and western Minas Gerais and neighboring areas in Goias received up to 0.75 inch of rain. The remaining portions of Brazil received little or no rain. Topsoil moisture is rated excessive in Parana and neighboring areas due to the recent rainfall. Soil moisture is rated favorably in much of Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul while the ground is dry or very dry in the remaining production areas.
Recent reports from Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia and Minas Gerais have not been good in regard to second season corn production and cotton yields. Both crops have been hurt by dryness this year and weather pattern changes are not likely to be very significant anytime soon. Mato Grosso and Goias produce about 45% of the nation’s second season corn and nearly half of the nation’s cotton 
is produced in Mato Grosso. Bahia cotton production has been most seriously reduced by dryness and excessive heat this year and in an average year it produces nearly 28% of the nation’s total crop. Complete production losses are certainly not expected in any of these northern states, but most reports from the region suggest substantial production cuts after an unusually hot, dry, summer.
In contrast, second season corn produced in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Sao Paulo represents nearly half of the total crop and most of the crops in the region have been quite wet for an extended period of time. The situation is far from a crisis in the wetter areas, but it will take longer for the crop to dry out and mature in this environment and that may delay fieldwork.
Cotton harvesting is under way in a few areas across northern Brazil, but much of it will take place in June and July suggesting that the largest impact of dryness on 2016 production has likely already occurred. Second season corn harvesting may begin soon with June, July and early August the primary harvest season.
Winter wheat planting has not advanced very well in some southern crop areas in Brazil. Normally, the planting season would end soon, but it 
may be longer this year before fieldwork is completed in the wettest areas and or some of the fields may be abandoned because time is running out for planting. Earlier planted wheat has likely established relatively well, but some conditions might be better if there a longer period of dry weather evolves.
Brazil’s main agricultural region will be dry or mostly dry through Wednesday. The lack of rain will help firm the topsoil firm in the wettest areas of center-south and interior southern Brazil. Field working conditions will gradually improve in the wettest areas. Scattered showers will then evolve over portions of center-south and southern Brazil Thursday and Friday as a weak disturbance evolves over the region.
Shower activity will continue over the weekend and next Monday. Rain totals for areas near and south of a line from Mato Grosso do Sul through southern Minas Gerais will range from 0.40 to 1.50 inches with local amounts to 2.50 inches. In the meantime, Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and northeastern Brazil will trend dry or mostly dry.
Temperatures will trend cooler than normal in southern Brazil during the coming week. The periods of cool weather and rainfall will limit the amount of drying that occurs for much of center-south and interior southern Brazil resulting in some ongoing concern over wheat planting and early second season corn harvest potentials. The next couple of days of net drying will be welcome, but it may not be long enough to get some producers back into their fields for long enough to get aggressive with fieldwork.
Corn and cotton maturation and harvesting in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and Bahia will advance swiftly. Any rain that falls in Mato Grosso will be too light in most areas to counter evaporation or significantly slow fieldwork.
Sugarcane harvest delays in parts of interior southern Brazil will also be of interest to the marketplace over the next few weeks. There have already been frequent delays in the maturation and harvest from southern Sao Paulo into northern Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul.
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