Immature Brazil Corn At Risk From Late Week Freezes
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, June 7 (World Weather Inc.) – Late week frost and a few freezes are expected in southern Brazil. The cold will not be significant enough to harm coffee or most of the citrus crop from northern Parana to southern Minas Gerais. However, there is enough immature corn in southern Parana and areas southward into northern Rio Grande do Sul to induce some possible light damage.
A significant cool airmass moving through Argentina will reach into southern Brazil later this week. The cool air is the primary reason why interior southern Brazil finally dries out this week. However, the presence of cool air offers another concern and that is over the condition of immature corn.
In a normal year, second season corn would be mature by now with harvesting well under way. However, the frequent occurrence of rainfall in recent weeks has left the crop a little more immature than usual and harvesting has only advanced very slowly. Most harvesting has been in northern crop areas of Brazil and in particular Goias, Mato Grosso and other areas in Bahia, and Minas Gerais.
Most likely corn in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul and areas nearby to the immediate south have mostly matured, but frequent rain has left the crop with high levels of moisture. The maturation process has not been completed as it should be and because of the higher levels of moisture still lingering in the crop there is some greater than usual vulnerability of crop damage by freezing temperatures. However, with that said, temperatures will have to be notably below freezing to induce serious damage. A light freeze and frost event would likely result in some minor damage that might hurt some of the grain quality. But the majority of the crop should be far enough along in its physiological development to minimize the impact of freezing temperatures. That does not mean there will be no damage, but it implies the impact may be low.
Parana usually produces about 31% of the second season corn crop and this year’s northern Brazil crop has already been hurt by poor soil moisture during reproduction. The frost and freeze event might increase some of the damage that has occurred overall to the nation’s production. The impact should be small, but with a rising tide of concern over a smaller corn crop already affecting market mentality this potential for frost and freeze is not likely to go over very well in the marketplace.
Low temperatures will slip into the upper 20s and 30s Fahrenheit from Rio Grande do Sul to southern Parana. It is possible that a few locations may slip to 23 or 24 degrees Fahrenheit (-5 or -4C) but mostly south of the important grain production region in a more traditionally colder area of Santa Catarina and northeastern Rio Grande do Sul where not much corn is produced. Thursday through Monday will be the coolest period and frost and freezes will be possible on a nightly basis across the area of concern.
This will be the first threat of frost and freezes since an April 28 event that brought unseasonably cold air to the region and sparked some frost and light freezes to the very same region. Damage at that time was considered minimal and this time around the impact is likely to be small, as well, because so much of the crop is mature.
Looking at the USDA production map, it is clear that the heart of Parana’s second season corn production region is in western and northern parts of the state and temperatures in those areas are not likely to be much colder than 28 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit (-2 and -1C). Most of the low temperatures in key corn production areas will stay in the 30s and not be low enough for significant freezes.
The cold will reach into sugarcane, citrus and coffee areas of southern Brazil during these same mornings, but readings will not be nearly as cold as those in southern Parana. Most of the soft commodity lowest temperatures will be in the 40s Fahrenheit which is far enough above the frost threshold to minimize the potential impact.
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