U.S. Warm Weather Firms Topsoil; Important Rain This Week

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By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, June 12 (World Weather Inc.) – Warm temperatures across most U.S. crop areas east of the Rocky Mountains accelerated drying rates and firmed up the topsoil in many areas. Some of the warmer and drier biased conditions were welcome and should have helped stimulate faster crop development and force root systems deeper into the ground. However, it is only mid-June and there is much summer weather that still lies ahead making rainfall extremely important over the next few weeks. Subsoil moisture is still adequate and will support crops for a couple of weeks, but rain is needed now to preserve that subsoil moisture for use later in the summer when heat and dryness are expected to be more prevalent. Rain will fall in much of the Midwest in the coming week and temperatures will cool down slightly to help temporarily moisten up the soil in some areas.

Rainfall over the past seven days was nearly non-existent in much of the western and south-central portions of the U.S. Corn and Soybean Production region, including the northern half of the Delta. The lack of rain occurred initially while temperatures were mild, but readings trended warmer during the latter part of last week and through the weekend with highest readings the past two to three days reaching into the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s Fahrenheit. That is plenty warm enough to accelerate evaporation and begin firming up the soil.

            Crop stress was not likely a significant factor during the past week and most plants likely responded well to the warmer and drier bias after a spring filled with frequent rain and sometimes cooler than usual conditions. As usual too much of a good thing can be bad and there is need for some cooler temperatures and rainfall this week to prevent crop stress from evolving and to conserve subsoil moisture which is going to be extremely important in July and August for parts of the Midwest when weather conditions become more consistently warm and dry biased.

            The latest soil assessment conducted this afternoon suggests much of the Midwest is now experiencing slightly short topsoil moisture. Such an environment is not usually a problem since crops have been in the ground for a while and soil moisture is still favorable for germination and emergence even in the most recently planted fields. The most recent planted areas, however, will need rain sooner than any other areas since seedlings will not have long enough root systems to tap into the subsoil moisture without a couple of rain events to help stimulate new growth and development.

Many other summer crops have been in the ground long enough for root systems to be in the subsoil and as the soil dries out during the summer the roots will continue to go deeper as long as the ground does not dry too fast.

A little crop stress was suspected in recent days from southern Mississippi into western Georgia where there is dryness in both the top and subsoil. A similar situation is present in unirrigated crop areas in southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas and southward from there into western parts of the Texas Panhandle. A few areas in the northwestern Plains are also quickly becoming a little dry and will need some rain soon to maintain the best possible late spring/early summer growth potentials.

Enough rain will fall this week in the upper Midwest to bolster topsoil moisture back to the point of saturation. A notable increase in soil moisture may also occur in eastern Texas and the southeastern states while most of the southern Plains, the eastern Midwest and much of the western United States will experience a net loss in soil moisture. Most other areas will break even on soil moisture with just enough rain falling to counter evaporation leaving soil conditions a week from now about the same as they are today.

Much of the decrease in soil moisture in the lower and eastern Midwest will not be dramatic, but gradual. Some rain will fall in nearly all areas of the Midwest, northern Plains, Delta and southeastern states at one time or another this week. However, with warm temperatures it will not take long for the newly-fallen rain to be evaporated away maintaining a nearly constant need for rain as long as the pattern remains poised toward warmer and drier biased conditions in July.

Temperatures this week will cool down with upper 70- and 80-degree highs likely in the northern Midwest while readings in the 80s and lower 90s occur for a while in the lower Midwest. These temperatures will be average near normal in the north and 3 to 5 degrees above 30-year norms in the south during the next few days while late this week and into the weekend temperatures may average 1 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the northeastern Midwest and 3 to 8 degrees above average in the southwest.  The week’s greatest heat relative to normal is expected over the central Plains and in the southwestern Corn and Soybean Production region.

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