Western, Southern India To Resume Drying Trend Soon
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, August 4 (World Weather Inc.) – Rain has fallen recently in cotton guar and groundnut producing areas from Gujarat to Rajasthan. However, rain totals were too light to seriously bolster soil moisture while temperatures were reaching 
into the 90s and over 100 degrees Fahrenheit periodically. The region will receive additional rain in the coming week, but only partial relief is expected again in the unirrigated fields. A more limited rainfall pattern will resume beginning in the August 12-18 period and it may last more deeply into late August. In the meantime, rainfall in many other areas of India either has been abundant or soon will be abundant and that favors normal crop development.
The July rainfall map clearly shows where the limited rainfall problem lies. Significant rain finally fell recently from southern and eastern Gujarat to the heart of Rajasthan where enough rain occurred to bolster soil moisture and improve planting and early development conditions for all crops produced in the region. However, rainfall was minimal in southern Pakistan and over the border into northwestern Gujarat and northwestern Rajasthan. Even though some rain fell across far northwestern India some of the amounts in key guar producing areas 
of Rajasthan were minimal, especially in light of high temperatures that often peaked in the 90s to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Evaporation rates with temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s are more than 0.50 inch each day suggesting that most of the far northwest, despite recent rain, needs far more precipitation to fix the bottom line for production.
Some locations in Gujarat reported just 12-45% of normal rainfall for the monsoon season to date. The “wetter” areas in the south part of the state ranged from 62 to 96% of normal rainfall. In Rajasthan the largest problem with limited rainfall has been and continues to be in the west where 58-93% of normal June 1 to August 4 rainfall was noted. The lighter biased rainfall would not be a serious concern if August rainfall was going to be abundant, but the odds are favoring a lighter than usual month of rain in many of these same drier biased areas.
The region of concern in northwestern India is not very 
large in size, but it is very important. Gujarat produces 35% of India cotton crop and 37% of the nation’s groundnuts. Both crops are in need of rain, although some very important and timely rain did occur in late July. A huge amount of India’s guar crop is raised in the northwest half of Rajasthan and approximately 35-40% of the state’s crop is likely struggling with limited rainfall and poor soil moisture. India produces nearly 80% of the world’s guar.
In the meantime, the remainder of India has received favorable bouts of rain with soil moisture good enough to support normal summer crop production potentials in many areas. Rainfall from June 1 – August 4 was near to above average from southern India through Madhya Pradesh and eastern Rajasthan to Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and northern Uttar Pradesh. Portions of Tamil Nadu reported 1.5 to 3.0 times the usual rainfall in the June 1 through August 4 period.
Gujarat and western Rajasthan are not the only areas in India that have received below average rainfall in the past two months. Rain totals of 59-74% of normal have occurred from easternmost Madhya Pradesh northward into eastern and southern Uttar Pradesh, as well as northwestern Bihar. Areas from southeastern Bangladesh to India’s far Eastern States have also reported 46-88% of normal rainfall. Many other areas in the nation have received a mostly near normal amount of rain, although Kerala and western parts of both southern Karnataka and northwestern Tamil Nadu have also reported notably less than usual rainfall so far this monsoon season.
The main concern in India in the coming weeks will be for cotton, groundnuts, guar, and other minor crops produced in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Planting got off to a slow start this year due to the periods of dryness in June and first part of July. Monsoonal rainfall increased in recent weeks, which helped promote more aggressive planting and establishment in most locations. However, planted acreage is suspected of being lower than normal this year stemming from the extended period of dryness.
Groundnuts and much of the cotton crop will establish and develop under generally favorable conditions during the next several days in Gujarat and the central, eastern and southern portions of Rajasthan. Soil moisture is high enough to promote aggressive growth and additional rain through the end of the weekend will continue to keep soil moisture at current levels. Monsoonal precipitation will then trend lighter and more erratic most days next week. The reduction in rain will gradually promote additional net drying across portions of western India. There will be enough moisture in the ground to promote good growth through the end of next week. However, continued dryness in the second week of the two-week forecast (August 12-18) will cause the ground to firm significantly leading several crops into a period of greater moisture stress by the middle and especially the latter parts of August. Significant production cuts might be possible if the dry bias prevails through the end of August.
Guar is primarily produced in northwestern Rajasthan. Although the crop can withstand periods of dryness without any major quality reductions, northwestern Rajasthan has been one of the driest locations in India since the beginning of the monsoon season. The continued lack of rain in the coming weeks will continue to stress the crop. Timely rain will be needed during the second half of August to promote a better environment for much of the crop.
Rain totals through next Thursday morning will range from 1.00 to 5.00 inches with locally greater amounts in eastern fringes of Rajasthan and northeastern Gujarat. Portions of southern Gujarat and western Rajasthan will also receive less than 1.00 inch of rain. Rainfall August 12 – 18 will often be too light to counter evaporation.
In the meantime, a returning concern over limited monsoonal precipitation is expected in southern India. The region’s rainfall (western and southern Maharashtra to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh) got off to a good start in June and follow up rain in July was sufficient to support planting and establishment. Crop conditions have been mostly rated favorably in recent weeks. However, rainfall during the next two weeks will trend much lighter and more erratic allowing a more notable drying trend to take place. The region’s rice, cotton, sorghum, groundnuts, and sugarcane will continue to develop under favorable conditions for a while, but the lack of rain may eventually lead to a little stress. Western and southern Maharashtra, Karnataka, western Telangana, southern and western Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala will all be a part of the net drying tendency through August 20. Timely rain will be needed thereafter to preserve production potentials.
Crop conditions are rated favorably in the remaining portions of central, northern, and eastern India. The pockets that reported drier than normal conditions since the beginning of June have not been dry enough to negatively impact growth conditions in recent weeks and significant rain is predicted for the next two weeks. Soil moisture has been rated favorably and the combination of good soil moisture and rainfall will promote aggressive development of rice, sugarcane, and many grain and oilseeds, as well as pulse crops produced in the region. As long as timely rain continues into September, most crops in eastern, far northern and central India will remain favorably poised for a successful reproductive season. Rain totals through next Thursday morning will range from 2.00 to 8.00 inches with locally greater amounts in central India. Timely rain will continue in these areas August 12 – 18.
Even though the focus of this report has been on northwestern India it is important to note that most of India’s crops are still poised to perform very well this year.
India’s drier tendencies in the west are coming – at least partially – from the recent negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole in which cooler than usual ocean water is present in the western Arabian Sea and western Indian Ocean while warm water is present near Sumatra, Indonesia and neighboring areas. The negative phase of IOD tends to reduce water vapor that gets caught up in the southwest monsoon flow into India. Rainfall tends to be lighter and more erratic when the southwest monsoonal winds are not carrying as much moisture inland as usual and that is the case this year. The negative IOD will likely last through the balance of the monsoon season which is why World Weather, Inc. reduced its total rainfall outlook for India to 95% of normal from an original forecast of 108% of normal. Some of the decline in rainfall is also associated with the poor development of La Nina conditions and no change in that situation is expected for the next few weeks either. Lastly, some of the poor rainfall coming up over the next two weeks will also come from the negative phase of Madden Julian Oscillation.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
©2016 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution.