Unusual Heat Expected For Western Europe Next Week
By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, August 19 (World Weather Inc.) – Drier and warmer-than-normal conditions will evolve in much of Western Europe next week. Temperatures during the weekend will be closer to normal, but a ridge of high pressure aloft over western Europe Sunday into Thursday will induce much hotter weather for a few days from Spain and Portugal into France and portions of Germany. France is already dealing with moisture shortages and the warmer than normal conditions will promote aggressive drying. Many unirrigated crops and livestock in France and Spain will be stressed by the heat and dryness next week.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in Europe throughout the next week to ten days. The most anomalously warm conditions will evolve Sunday into Thursday from Spain and Portugal through France and the United Kingdom to Germany. The hottest temperatures in this 
region will reach into the 80s Fahrenheit across southern England and Wales while getting into the 90s across central and southern France and southwestern Germany. Highs further east will not be nearly as hot, but will rise into the 70s and 80s often throughout the week next week. Extreme highs in the unirrigated driest areas of southwestern and west-central France may come close to 100 degrees Fahrenheit and such conditions will prove stressful for all unirrigated crops grown in the region. Spain will also experience some 90- and lower 100-degree highs.
Short term bouts of hot weather have occurred previously this summer, but they have not been a very big problem due to shorter durations of the hottest conditions and more favorable soil moisture. However, with most of France hurting for moisture today and crops already suffering yield losses the situation will only create a more desperate environment. Temperatures will rise more than normal because of the already dry conditions and that will add stress since there is no moisture in the ground or in the air to help curb the heat wave.
France has been drier than normal so far this month with much of the country also trending drier than normal in July. Soil moisture is short to very short in much of the country due to the lack of rain since the beginning of July. Drying rates were high despite temperatures trending near normal recently and once the hotter air arrives the situation will quickly become more intolerable. Spain is also very dry due to the lack of rain in 
recent weeks, but it does irrigate a much larger percentage of its summer crops relative to that in France. Other sections of Western Europe have mostly adequate moisture in the soil and will not heat up quite so excessively.
Computer forecast models are divergent in regard to how long the heat wave will last. Today’s European forecast model run suggested the heat would ease up in parts of western Europe during the second half of next week, but the ridge would not break down entirely and a new surge of hot weather might occur in the final days of August. The overnight GFS model run broke the heat quicker in the second half of next week, but the mid-day forecast model run suggests now that the heat will last through the end of next week (Friday, August 26). This latest change suggests the heat will be a little more persistent and a little more threatening to crops and livestock.
The lack of air conditioning systems in Europe will create a dangerous environment for people living in homes with poor air circulation systems. The potential for heat related illnesses and even death might rise if the heat becomes oppressive and persistent.
In the meantime, corn, sunseed and some soybeans produced in France along with other unirrigated crops will run a higher than usual risk of further production losses as a result of the coming hot, dry, weather.
Crop conditions outside of Western Europe are in generally good shape, although parts of Bulgaria, Greece and both southern and eastern Romania are dealing with another dryness problem. Temperatures in southeastern Europe will be warmer than usual over the coming week, but the anomalies will not be as great as those in western Europe.
Very little rain is slated for France and Spain through next Friday. Much of the rain that falls will be rapidly lost to evaporation and net drying will continue. The United Kingdom outside the southeast corner will receive timely rain that will help keep soil moisture rated favorably. Germany will receive little to no precipitation of significance and will also experience net drying.
Germany and the United Kingdom will not be as significantly impacted by the warm weather as France and Spain because of more favorable subsoil moisture that will support some crop development, despite the lack of moisture and presence of hot temperatures.
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