Typhoon Lionrock To Impact Northeast Japan, China
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, August 29 (World Weather Inc.) – Typhoon Lionrock has spent the past ten days over open water south of Japan moving through a large loop, but that is about to change as the storm accelerates to the north and is drawn into a developing deep upper level low pressure center forming over northeastern China. The merging of these two features promises to produce some very heavy rain and flooding from northeastern Honshu into a part of Heilongjiang and immediate neighboring areas of Russia and Jilin, China.
At 0300 GMT today, the center of the storm was 307 miles south southeast of Yukosuka, Japan at 31.1 north, 142.1 east. Movement was northeasterly at 18 mph and maximum sustained wind speeds were reaching 109 mph with gusts to 132 mph. Typhoon force wind (greater than 74 mph) was occurring out 35 miles from the center of the storm while speeds of tropical storm force (greater than 40 mph and less than 75 mph) were occurring 220 miles from the center.
Lionrock is expected to gradually lose its intensity prior to reaching northeastern Honshu, Japan. Landfall is expected around 1200 GMT Tuesday. The storm’s forward speed will continue to increase and just 12 hours later the storm will be nearing the Russian coast to the east of Heilongjiang, China. The storm’s center will end up over the heart of Heilongjiang around 0001 GMT Thursday. The storm will be moving too fast to lose all of its tropical characteristics prior to landfall in northeastern China. As a result, there is likely to be quite a bit of rainfall in northeastern China as the tropical moisture is condensed out by the deep mid-latitude low pressure center and cold air aloft over northeastern China later this week. Rainfall may range from 4.00 to more than 10.00 inches in northeastern China while rainfall in northeastern Japan will range from 2.00 to 6.00 inches. The fast movement of the storm will help minimize rain totals over Japan.
Lionrock’s presence over the open water of the western Pacific Ocean south of Japan during the past ten days has resulted in well below normal rainfall in western japan, South Korea and east-central China. Most of these areas have become a little too dry in recent days and rain is needed. Some rain will fall in association with the combined storm system expected over northeastern China later this week. However, it is still debatable how much rain will fall in western Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu. South Korea will also get some needed rain, but there will have to be some increase in rainfall beyond this week to restore normal soil conditions and wat7er supply.
In the meantime, Lionrock’s fast movement will reduce the amount of time that seriously damaging weather will occur in Japan. The storm will weaken to a tropical storm before it moves inland, but once it begins to merge with the mid-latitude storm system some of the wind and rain will increase again for a little while. A close watch on northeastern China’s crop conditions will be warranted over the next few days.
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