Dry Weather To Continue For Portions Of Yangtze River Basin
By Andrew Owen
Kansas City, September 8 (World Weather Inc.) – A dry weather bias that evolved in portions of east-central China in August will continue during the next week to ten days. Soil moisture is short to very short in much of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins due to the lack of recent rain and periods of warmer than normal temperatures. Dry and warm weather during the next seven 
days will further deplete soil moisture and continue to stress crops while speeding many of them toward a faster maturation. Production cuts are already expected because of severe flooding in July and this bout of dryness is not going to help crops perform any better. Most likely yields will drift a little lower.
In the meantime, Northeastern China is too wet for favorable corn and soybean maturation and harvesting. The frequent precipitation pattern will continue to slow or delay fieldwork for the next seven days.
Northeastern China reported 0.75 to 3.00 inches of rain during the past week with local amounts of 5.00 inches or more. Areas from southern Sichuan and Yunnan through Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and immediate neighboring areas also reported significant rain with moisture totals ranging from 1.00 to 5.00 inches with locally greater amounts. Portions of the North China Plain received a trace to 0.75 inch of rain with a few greater totals while much of the remaining production areas were dry.
Temperatures were near to above average most days during the past week. Highs peaked into the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit with several areas in southern and central China warming into the 90s. Portions of Northeastern China did not warm past the 60s periodically due to rain and cloudy skies.
Rain is needed for the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins where the ground has become too dry for the best production of grain, oilseed and cotton products. Hubei, Anhui, southern Henan, and immediate neighboring areas are driest and some of these same areas also experienced severe flooding in July that damaged or destroyed many crops. Crops that survived the flooding now need rain to reduce stress. Continued dryness could lead to some additional production cuts, although losses from flooding earlier this year were already significant
In contrast to the drier bias in east-central China, southern 
and northeastern China has adequate to excessive topsoil moisture. Corn and soybeans in the northeast are already maturing and readying for harvest and do not have a great need for rainfall. Early season harvesting has been slowed or stalled in several areas because of frequent and persistent rainfall. The region has been rainy for nearly a week and some quality reductions may be evolving in a few soybean production areas in Jilin and northern Heilongjiang. Dry weather is needed in the near future to firm up the ground and improve maturation and harvest conditions. Continued rainfall will only increase the potential for wet weather disease and quality declines.
In the meantime, wet weather in southern China is just beginning and it has not occurred long enough to be a serious threat, but the forecast does perpetuate rain for the next two weeks.
Jiangsu, Anhui, and neighboring areas through Sichuan and neighboring areas will remain in a mostly dry mode through the latter part of next week. Dryness will potentially carry over into the second week of the outlook (Sep. 16-23), as well. Soil moisture reductions will continue and the environment will remain stressful for crops still in the development stages. A general soaking of rain would be beneficial for most crops if it occurs soon, but by the end of this month it may be too late since many crops will already be maturing and getting ready for harvest. Other sections of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins will also trend drier than normal and would welcome better rainfall at the end of September.
Scattered shower activity will continue in Northeastern China during the coming week. The frequent rain will limit drying and slow or delay maturation and harvesting. Minor quality declines will be possible, but the rain will not be great enough to severely impact quality. Rain totals through next Thursday morning will range from 0.75 to 3.00 inches with locally greater amounts in Jilin and northern Heilongjiang.
Southern China will receive significant rain through next Thursday with moisture totals ranging from 2.00 to 6.00 inches and locally more. Several waves of rain are also slated for the region September 16-23. Fieldwork will often be slowed due to the rain.
The North China Plain will see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next week to ten days. Late season growth will advance swiftly. The earlier planted crops will also mature under good conditions, although drier weather later this month will be needed for the best maturation conditions.
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