U.S. Midwest Harvest Delays Into Early Next Week

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By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

Kansas City, September 21 (World Weather Inc.) – A warm and wet weather pattern that dominated the summer in key U.S. Midwestern crop areas helped to induce a very good production year. The same pattern seems to have prevailed into September and crops are not finding the wetter bias as beneficial as it once was and had temperatures been cooler this month the situation would be a little more problematic. Additional rain through the weekend and early next week will be accompanied by a cooling trend and delays in harvesting will become a little more notable for a short while raising market interest in crop conditions especially soybeans. October weather is expected to trend cooler and bouts of precipitation will continue to come and go. The environment may not be ideal for aggressive harvesting, but it will not be a disaster either. Field progress will be disrupted at times and the situation will be closely monitored for a while until a longer period of good weather evolves. Mid- to late-week next week and into the following weekend may be one of the better stretches of time for net drying and improved harvest progress.

Rainfall in the Midwest during the past week favored much of Iowa outside the southeast corner and neighboring areas in Minnesota, southeastern South Dakota, Nebraska, and northern Missouri. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 0.50 to 3.00 inches with local amounts of 5.00 inches or more in pockets pf western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and southeastern South Dakota. Southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, and a small band from southwestern through central Indiana also receive 0.50 to 3.00 inches of rain. Other sections of the Corn Belt received a trace to 0.50 inch of rain with locally greater amounts.

Many of the areas that were wettest in this most recent past week were also wetter biased during much of the month through September 20. The ground is wettest in many of these areas and the topsoil moisture chart below is a great indicator of the regions that are considered too wet today. The areas are most in Iowa, southern Minnesota and parts of Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin and parts of eastern South Dakota.

Abundant topsoil moisture was present Tuesday in much of Iowa and neighboring areas due to the significant rain reported in this most recent past week and earlier in the month, as well. Portions of southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois were also excessively wet. Soil conditions in other sections of the Midwest are adequately moist. Drier weather is needed for the abundantly wet areas in the near future to firm up the soil and promote better maturation and harvest conditions.

Northern sections of the Delta received 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain during the past week while areas further south received little or no rain. Other than a few pockets that are abundantly wet near the Missouri Bootheel, soil conditions were favorable for maturation and harvesting. Rainfall varied across the southeastern states during the past week with portions of southern Alabama, northern Georgia, and eastern sections of the Carolinas received 0.50 to 3.00 inches of rain. Other sections of the southeastern states received little or no rain.

Corn and soybean harvesting began in portions of the U.S. recently. As of September 18, 9% of the corn was harvested compared to 4% of the soybeans. Harvest progress was furthest along in the Delta. Much of the corn and soybeans were still maturing with nearly half of the soybean now dropping leaves suggesting the harvest season is here and drier weather is needed to promote field progress. Dry and warm weather in the coming weeks would promote aggressive maturation and harvest conditions in most locations.

Western sections of the Corn and Soybean Belt will have several opportunities for rain through the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will evolve from Wisconsin and southern Minnesota through western Iowa and eastern Nebraska today with some of the rain prevailing into the weekend. Rainfall will diminish once a cold front sweeps across the region this weekend. A cut-off upper-level low pressure center will continue to promote light and erratic rainfall during the first part of next week and that feature will also drop daily high temperatures to the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit down from 70s and 80s in recent days slowing drying rates. Rain totals through next Wednesday morning will range from 0.50 to 2.00 inches in much of the western Corn Belt with local amounts of 3.00 to 5.00 inches in western Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, and portions of western and northern Iowa. These heavier rainfall areas will be where the greatest harvest delays will evolve and prevail.

Flooding will also be possible in portions of Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and northern and western Iowa due to waves of heavy rain over saturated or nearly saturated soil. Minor quality reductions will be possible in the wettest locations, although no production cuts will occur. The region will need drier weather in October to firm up the ground and promote better harvesting while protecting crop conditions.

A frontal passage will track over eastern sections of the Corn Belt Sunday and Monday. Rain totals will range from 0.25 to 0.70 inch with a few locally greater amounts possible. The region will otherwise trend mostly dry through the middle of next week. Maturation and early harvesting will advance swiftly in most areas.

The Delta will receive light rain Sunday and Monday while trending dry most other days during the coming week. Minor fieldwork disruptions will occur, though no major harvest delays are expected. Much like the eastern Corn Belt, maturation and harvesting will advance aggressively in most locations.

Rainfall will vary across the southeastern states during the coming week. Alabama and northern Georgia will receive little or no rain while alternating periods of light precipitation and sunshine evolve in the remaining areas. Minor harvest delays will be possible in the Carolinas and portions of Georgia. However, no major quality impacts will occur.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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