Unusually Late Western India Rain Presents Mixed Impact

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By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

Kansas City, October 7 (World Weather Inc.) – Much of Rajasthan, Gujarat, western Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra reported significant rainfall during the past week and some of that occurred after a wetter bias in September, as well. Crops in Gujarat and Rajasthan were in a wide range of conditions brought on by erratic rainfall during the early part of the monsoon season. Some crops were planted normally while others were very late. Recent rain was especially good for the late planted crops and will likely see to it that they do not run short of moisture prior to the end of the growing season. Early planted crops were ready for harvest and some of the rain reported this week was excessive and damaging to some of those crops. A welcome drying trend is forthcoming this week and that should translate into better crop and field conditions for all areas, but additional rain prior to that time may further raise some crop quality issues.

Gujarat and the southern half of Rajasthan reported 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain for the seven-day period ending this morning. Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and neighboring areas reported 0.75 to 3.00 inches of rain as well. Northern Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh through Bangladesh and the Eastern States received 0.50 to 2.00 inches of rain most often with local amounts approaching 3.00 inches in the Eastern States. Portions of Tamil Nadu received 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain while the remaining areas in southern India were mostly dry. Extreme northern India received little or no rain.

Soil conditions vary across India. Several areas in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha are abundantly wet in the topsoil due to recent rain. Other sections of central and eastern India have mostly adequate soil moisture. Northern Rajasthan through extreme northern India have short to very short soil moisture, along with much of southern India.

Flooding was reported in a part of Gujarat this week. Unofficial rain totals as great 6.14 inches were noted and much of that occurred over a short-two day period. The moisture was not good for early maturing crops in Gujarat or Rajasthan where some quality decrease was suspected. Much of the cotton was not that far advanced and rain was needed to support cotton as it continued to set and fill bolls. Normally, some irrigation is applied at this time of year to support any late season crops, but the rainfall this week took care of that need and was great enough to bolster water supply for future irrigation needs.

Some early groundnut and soybean harvesting was under way, but progress has been slow this year because of frequent rain in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and a few other areas. Dry weather that is forthcoming will help tremendously in getting these crops harvested without any further risk to their quality.

Monsoonal precipitation was slow to evolve in western India earlier this year. The slow start to the monsoon season delayed planting in several production areas. Dryness was a concern for most of the growing season before periods of timely rain evolved in August and early September just before the usual monsoon withdrawal dates. The rain saved many of the late-planted crops and will bolster yields. Early maturing crops have already lost production potential and this week’s rainfall may not have been timely enough to support a boost in production. However, a much larger portion of Gujarat and Rajasthan crops were planted late making this week’s rain timely and mostly beneficial.

The only crop that will see any significant production cuts is guar produced in northwestern Rajasthan. While other sections of Rajasthan and Gujarat saw periods of timely rain in recent weeks, western Rajasthan remained in a drier than normal bias.

Southern Gujarat will receive 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain today with locally greater amounts possible. Dry weather will then evolve over the weekend and continue most days next week as rainfall retreats to the south and east. The dry weather bias will continue during the second week of the outlook as well. Late season growth conditions will be favorable in the coming days due to the recent rain. Crop maturation will also slowly improve once the ground has a chance to firm.

Periods of rain will continue through the weekend in much of central India. Rain totals through Monday morning will range from 0.25 to 1.50 inches with locally greater amounts. A drier weather bias will then evolve for the remainder of the two-week period. Maturation conditions will gradually improve as the ground firms.

Southern India reported drier than normal conditions at the end of summer and recent weeks. The ground is too dry in unirrigated areas to support good late season growth conditions. Rainfall will continue to be light and erratic through the end of next week, keeping the ground too dry for favorable development. There is potential for improved rainfall October 15 – 21 that would promote a better environment for late season growth. Some production cut is possible in sugarcane, rice, cotton, sorghum and groundnut production areas from southern Maharashtra to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, but any rain that falls in the next two weeks could have a big impact in stopping the decline in production and offering some short term crop condition improvements.

Eastern India will continue to receive rain on a frequent basis during the next two weeks while northern India is dry.

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