2016-17 South America Weather Outlook Still Looks Good
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, October 13 (World Weather Inc.) – Brazil and Argentina weather continues to advance in a favorable direction. There have been no serious deviations from our expectations during late September and early October period and we believe strongly that Brazil will have another great production year with a little dryness in the far south that should not fester into much of a problem. There is potential for too much rain in center west and center south Brazil in January and February about the time of second season crop planting. Argentina’s dryness is already past and timely rainfall should occur through much of the late spring and summer supporting a favorable production year.
Too much focus has been put on La Nina for the outlook this spring and summer due to its slow and lackluster evolution and likely late influence on South America’s growing season. The prevailing weather pattern speaks loudly of a normal rainy season in Brazil with a relatively high potential for above average rainfall during January and February. Wetter biased conditions are expected earlier in the production year than January, but those two months will be notably wetter biased and that may present a few problems for the planting of second season crops and the harvest of early soybeans and corn.
There is not much reason to be concerned about the start of monsoonal rainfall this year. All indicators suggest the monsoon will get under way in the last days of October and early November and when it comes on it should do so with some vengeance. The arriving monsoonal rainfall from the Amazon River Basin area may shut down or at least greatly diminish rainfall in far southern Brazil for a little while during the initial period of greatest rainfall across center west and center south Brazil. However, the reduction in rainfall for far southern Brazil would only be a temporary event and it would occur after the coming week to ten days of exceptionally great rain. The first part of the drier biased period will help reduce flood water and to firm up the topsoil from parts of Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul to southern Paraguay and parts of southern Parana.
A little later in November the initial wave of monsoonal rain across center west, center south and northeastern Brazil will ease up for a little while and mid-latitude storm systems will bring weather events through far southern Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay to center south Brazil routinely to keep the region favorably mixed with moisture and sunshine. Rain will also continue routinely from the monsoon across center west and northeastern Brazil making November and December favorable rainfall months in most of Brazil. There is some potential for Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraguay to trend a little drier biased at times as late November and December arrive.
Later in the summer (i.e. January and February) rain is expected to fall frequently and heavily across portions of center west and center south Brazil. The precipitation may slow or stop fieldwork for periods of time and there will be some frustration expressed by producers in the region at a time when harvesting of first crops and planting of second crops is normally getting under way. The focus of atmospheric weather energy on center west and center south crop areas will likely lead to a decline in rainfall in far southern Brazil including areas from Rio Grande do Sul to western Parana and parts of Paraguay. Some of this region may become a little too dry periodically, but World Weather, Inc. believes some timely rainfall will come along to support crops when it is most necessary.
The wet summer will begin to wane in the latter part of February and certainly in March allowing second season crops to experience some better weather.
Argentina’s weather will be more favorably mixed most of the summer. Some of the dryness that occurs periodically in Uruguay, Rio Grande do Sul and neighboring areas will spill over into eastern Argentina impacting rice more than the coarse grain or oilseed crops. The further west and north one travels in Argentina the more timely and beneficial rainfall will become during the heart of summer. Dryness is not likely to be any more than temporary in most areas with the only possible exception being eastern Argentina where some of that dryness in Brazil may have influence.
The bottom line is that most of the South America forecast for this growing season looks very good. The excessive moisture situation in Brazil will be a concern and so might some of the dryness in southern Brazil. However, southern Brazil is not nearly as important to the national production as center west and center south and they should perform well as long as the excessive rain does not become a serious threat. Some timely rain should come around in far southern Brazil to minimize the impact of drier biased periods, but the rainfall may be below average at times.
Temperatures may be a little cooler than usual in southern Argentina and Uruguay and a little warmer biased in northern Brazil. However, the warmer bias is expected to be more in the early weeks of the growing season and not as much in the heart of summer.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. cannot be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.
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