Northern Brazil Too Warm, Southern Brazil Too Wet

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By Andrew Owen

Kansas City, October 19 (World Weather Inc.) – A strong contrast in weather occurred across Brazil crop areas during the past week raising some concern over crop conditions in both the north and far south. Northern areas were subjected to hot temperatures and declining rainfall which may have brought some stress to recently emerged crops while Rio Grande do Sul experienced excessive rainfall – most of which occurred in the past three days – resulting in flood conditions and a decline in winter wheat conditions. Weather pattern changes are coming that will likely bring increasing rainfall to center west and northern areas of center south Brazil in time to improve spring planting conditions.

            Rio Grande do Sul reported significant rain during the past week with totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranging from 3.00 to 10.25 inches. Areas from Santa Catarina and Parana to southern Mato Grosso do Sul, much of Sao Paulo, and portions of southern Minas Gerais received 0.75 to 3.30 inches of rain. Several locations in Goias and Mato Grosso also received 0.25 to 1.45 inches of rain while one location along the Bahia coast received slightly more than 2.00 inches. The remaining production areas in Brazil were mostly dry.

Highest temperatures from October 12 – 18 were in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit in much of Brazil with several locations in the north Brazil warming above 100 degrees. The hottest weather has evolved in the past few days and extremes of 100 to 106 degrees were noted across portions of Mato Grosso into western and northern Goias and in random locations in central and western Bahia, northern and western Minas Gerais and far northern Sao Paulo. The heat occurred after rainfall began to diminish across the northern production areas. The combination of no rain and hot temperatures accelerated drying rates and many areas that received timely rain earlier this month were quickly drying out.

The driest areas in Brazil today are in western and northern Goias, Tocantins, western and southern Bahia and northern Minas Gerais. Soil moisture in these areas is very short and the dryness corresponds well with the hottest temperatures of the past three days. Mato Grosso soil moisture varies from marginally adequate and short in the central and southern parts of the state to very short in the east.

In contrast, areas from Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina through portions of Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and immediate neighboring areas are excessively wet from recent rain. Soil moisture in Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais is mostly adequate.

            The warm weather and lack of significant rain stressed recently planted and emerged crops in northeastern and center-west Brazil. No significant damage is suspected as long as soil conditions improve and temperatures drop into a more seasonable bias in the near future. Portions of center-south Brazil also need timely rain in the near future to bolster soil moisture to more adequate levels.

Far southern Brazil would benefit from an extended period of dry weather to firm up the topsoil and promote better wheat harvest conditions. In addition to the possible quality reductions from the heavy rain during the past week, many producers have not been able to get into the fields because of the moisture situation and drying is needed for an extended period before fieldwork can resume. Rio Grande do Sul produces 36% of the wheat crop in Brazil and it is unclear how much harvesting is complete, but the odds are good that only a small portion has been collected.

Corn, soybean, early rice and cotton planting have been advancing swiftly in recent weeks. The best planting and crop development conditions so far this week have been from Parana to southern Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul where soil conditions have been nearly ideal and rainfall was infrequent while temperatures warm.

Rain will fall most significantly over the next seven days from Rio Grande do Sul to Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Goias and Sao Paulo. Rainfall in this region will vary from 0.75 inch to 3.00 inches which will be sufficient to support previously planted crops and support ongoing planting when rain is not falling. The precipitation in this region will slowly increase as the next seven days unfold. Precipitation in the next couple of days will be lightest and most insignificant offering the best field working conditions.

Rain during the next seven days will be lightest and most insignificant from Bahia into northern and eastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, which is normal for this time of year. Restricted rainfall in Mato Grosso, Tocantins and portions of Goias into the weekend will allow the heat wave to continue with daily highs in the 90s to 105 degrees occurring most afternoons. Showers will begin increasing during the latter part of the weekend and most of next week and it is at that time that temperatures will begin to cool and stress will start decreasing for the early emerged crops.

As of Tuesday, Mato Grosso reported soybean planting to be 31.4% complete which is the fastest planting pace ever recorded. The previous fastest planting year was in 2009. Nationally, soybean planting was 17% complete compared to 16% average and 13% last year at this time. Other planting statistics included 82% of the corn crop had been planted in Parana as of October 11 and 11

World Weather Inc. is still expecting 2016-17 to be plenty wet for Brazil. Some excessive rain may fall in January and February across center west, northern parts of center south and northeastern Brazil while lighter rains occur further south. Recent chatter in the market place about La Nina induced problems with production in 2016-17 seems to be mostly nervousness. World Weather, Inc. feels confident over its summer outlook.

World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation’s information in any business, trade or investment decision.

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