South Africa Topsoil Moisture Bolstered For Planting

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By Andrew Owen

Kansas City, October 20 (World Weather Inc.) – Rain was scattered across portions of eastern and central South Africa during the past week. The boost in rain was welcome for late season winter wheat growth in Free State and North West. Summer crop planting prospects also improved due to the timely rain. Another week of erratic rain is in store for central and eastern South Africa that will continue to promote better conditions for the winter wheat development and summer crop planting. Western Cape, Northern Cape, and western fringes of Eastern Cape will remain in a drier than normal bias through the end of next week.

Rainfall during the past week favored areas from North West, Free State, and eastern sections of Eastern Cape through Natal, Mpumalanga, and southern Limpopo. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 0.24 to 1.54 inches most often. A few locations in central and eastern Northern Cape reported 0.43 to 0.71 inch of rain while pockets in Western Cape, western portions of Eastern Cape, and northern Limpopo received up to 0.32 inch. Most of western South Africa and northern Limpopo failed to get enough rain to counter evaporation. A large part of the rain reported over the past week occurred in the past two days.

The only areas with adequate topsoil moisture today are in portions of southern Natal and eastern fringes of Eastern Cape. Other production areas still have a shortage of soil moisture, despite this week’s rainfall. However, this was the first time significant rain has occurred in parts of eastern South Africa in months and it may be signaling a more favorable rainy season in 2016-17 compared to the past two summers of extreme drought.

Scattered shower activity will evolve on a frequent basis through the end of the weekend in central and eastern South Africa. Periods of light rain will continue in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Natal at times next week while central parts of the nation trend drier. Moisture totals through next Thursday morning will range from 0.40 to 1.50 inches most often with a few exceptions. Several locations in Free State, North West, and western Mpumalanga will receive 1.50 to 3.00 inches of rain with locally greater amounts. Southern portions of Eastern Cape and northern Limpopo will also only receive a trace to 0.40 inch of rain. The wettest areas will see a further boost in topsoil moisture, but most of the nation will still require a general soaking of rain to more seriously recharge the soil with enough moisture to support crops for an extended period of time.

Western, Northern, and western Eastern Cape provinces will remain in a mostly dry mode through the end of next week. Any rain that falls will be unable to counter evaporation and that may stress and strain winter crops lowering some of the yield potential.

Temperatures will trend above average across South Africa through next Thursday. Daytime highs will often peak into the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit with several areas from Northern Cape through Limpopo warming into the 90s on a frequent basis. Portions of southern and eastern South Africa will warm into the 60s through the end of the weekend as well.

Late season winter wheat growth in Free State and North West will continue to improve from the additional rain, although rain will be needed routinely for a while to support the best yields. Some of the rain has evolved a little too late in the season to prevent some production cuts, buy the rain will help curb the declining trend. Winter wheat in Western Cape received timely rain earlier this growing season and performed well until recently when dryness became more significant.

Summer coarse grain and oilseed planting conditions will slowly improve for much of eastern and central South Africa in the coming days. Additional rain will be needed in November to fully restore soil moisture in support of the best possible production year.

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