November Weather Should Continue Favorable For Brazil
By Drew Lerner
Kansas City, October 30 (World Weather Inc.) – Brazil finished the month of October with very little sign of a negative La Nina like influence on crops. The month was generally favorable for many crops in the nation and November is not likely to be hugely different with a favorable distribution of rain expected.
The weather in October was not perfect, but when is it ever. Many areas in the nation did experience a good distribution of rainfall for this time of year. Rainfall was greater than usual in portions of center west and far southern Brazil. The A bit too much rain fell during the month in Rio Grande do Sul where wheat quality nose-dived to feed grain quality after looking very good for much for much of the spring. Heavy rain that developed in the most recent week in southeastern Paraguay, western Parana and southernmost Mato Grosso do Sul left some corn and soybean fields too wet, as well.
In contrast, portions of the northeast were left notably drier biased and the multi-year drought continues to prevail across portions of Bahia, northeastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and a few Tocantins locations. However, monsoonal rains often do not begin in these areas until November making the drier biased tendency in October of little concern. Brazil’s prevailing weather pattern for the balance of spring and summer will promote rain in most grain, oilseed, cotton, sugarcane, citrus and rice production areas. Sufficient rain is expected later this season and in the heart of summer to ease long term dryness in many of these northeastern crop areas. In the meantime, another month of well distributed rainfall is expected for center west, center south and far southern Brazil.
Rainfall in this most recent week varied from 2.50 to more than 6.00 inches from northernmost Rio Grande do Sul through western 
Parana to southernmost Mato Grosso do Sul. Rainfall in Mato Grosso was quite varied with only 0.30 inch occurring in easternmost Mato Grosso while 2.00 to 3.78 inches which was sufficient to lift topsoil moisture to ideal levels in many crop areas in the region. In contrast, rainfall during this past week was not sufficient to counter evaporation across Goias, much of Minas Gerais, northern Sao Paulo, Bahia or most of Tocantins. Some locally heavy rain did fall in far northern Minas Gerais during the weekend and it was welcome as a reprieve from dryness that occurred earlier this month.
Rainfall as a percentage of normal was notably below average in Espirito Santo, Eastern Minas Gerais and eastern Goias where less than half of normal rain occurred. However, normal rainfall is not very much at this time of year and the data can be a little miss-leading. However, dryness has been a persistent feature in this region over multiple years and that has raised concern about any additional drying that occurs in 
the next few weeks. World Weather, Inc. is confident, however, that rain will fall more significantly in this region a little later this year and into the summer.
Sunday’s soil assessment has the ground saturated in most of the region central Mato Grosso to southwestern Sao Paulo, western Parana, central and southern Paraguay and areas southward into Rio Grande do Sul. Flooding from torrential rain in Rio Grande do Sul earlier this month still be lingering. The pocket of heavy rain in northern Minas Gerais during the weekend bolstered topsoil moisture briefly, but follow up rain will be needed to assure the improving moisture trend is sustainable.
Many other areas in northeastern Brazil, including parts of Goias, Bahia, Espirito Santo, eastern and far western Minas Gerais and parts of Tocantins still have short to very short soil moisture and will require additional rain soon.
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