Center-South Brazil Will See Improving Conditions

By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

Kansas City, November 28 (World Weather Inc.) – Limited rain recently in interior southern portions of Brazil has left a part of center south crop country running a little drier than desired, but weather pattern changes this week are already bringing on some welcome rain to restore favorable topsoil moisture and put to rest any market trade ideas that southern Brazil is headed for moisture issues. Some drying is still expected this summer, but just like this week, timely rain is expected and that should translate into ongoing favorable crop development. 

A lack of rain during the 7-day periods ending November 16 and November 23 firmed up the soil in portions of Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. The ground has firmed up considerably and a little crop moisture stress has begun, but it was just a few weeks ago that southern Brazil was too wet and much of the drying period was welcome. Conditions are becoming a little too dry in a few locations which makes this week’s rainfall forecast perfectly timed to eliminate concern over developing dryness. Scattered shower will evolve across center-south Brazil through Wednesday before alternating periods of light rain and sunshine evolve for the remainder of the week. Soil conditions will improve, although additional rain will be needed later in December to keep the ground from drying down once again.

Areas from Mato Grosso through Goias and much of Minas Gerais reported significant rain during the past week. Moisture totals for the seven-day period ending this morning ranged from 0.75 to 3.60 inches with local totals up to 4.80 inches. Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana received 0.25 to 1.00 inch of rain with local totals up to 2.30 inches. Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo received less than 0.75 inch of rain, most of which was rapidly lost to evaporation. One location along the Bahia/Goias border reported 1.81 inches of rain while much of Bahia received less than 0.50 inch. Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo reported a trace to 1.00 inch of rain.

The ground is abundantly wet from much of Mato Grosso through central Minas Gerais due to recent frequent rainfall. Fieldwork has been slowed across the region because of the abundant moisture situation and the region would benefit from periods of drier weather.

Mato Grosso do Sul, northern Parana, and much of Sao Paulo reported drying during the past two weeks. The region trended drier than normal with temperatures that were near normal most days. Topsoil moisture is rated short to very short, although most areas only need one generalized rain event to fix the moisture deficits. Bahia also has seen some returning dryness recently and would will benefit greatly from a boost in rainfall expected later this week and into early next week. Soil moisture in the remaining production areas of Brazil is mostly favorable.

Rainfall will continue frequent and abundant from Mato Grosso and Goias through Minas Gerais this week. Bahia, Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and northern fringes of Mato Grosso do Sul will also receive rain on a near daily basis that will help bolster soil moisture. Amounts through next Monday morning will range from 1.00 to 4.00 inches with local amounts to 6.00 inches and more. Fieldwork conditions will deteriorate in the wettest areas. Crop growth rates may be slowed until the sun shines more routinely.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will evolve across the drier areas in center-south Brazil today and Wednesday. The rain will help bolster soil moisture and promote a better environment for crop development in much of the region. Alternating periods of light rain and sunshine will evolve for the remainder of the week. Overall, rain totals through next Monday morning will range from 0.50 to 2.50 inches with locally greater amounts. Soil moisture will improve in most locations in the next few days, although follow up rain will be needed to maintain the improved conditions in parts of the region. The most recent computer forecast models suggests center-south Brazil will trend wetter than normal during the second week of the outlook assuring that dryness will not be much of an issue for the first half of December.

Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina will receive the lightest and least frequent rainfall during the next couple of weeks. Sufficient amounts of rain will occur to prevent dryness from becoming significant, but there may be an ongoing need for timely rainfall to maintain the best soil and crop conditions.

In the meantime time, it is very important to realize that Brazil’s crop weather this spring has been much improved over that of last year especially in the north and northeast where last week’s Vegetative Health Index has clearly shown a big improvement in crop conditions. The planting progress reports from the nation also reinforce this fact with the planting pace moving along at a record or near record pace for some areas. Additional rain is needed in the northeast and with the forecast being what it is today that region is poised to see more improvement.

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